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4/A big part of the story is the massive shift in the form of investment, from tangible to intangible. This means analysts have to go back to basics and figure out the *magnitude of investment* and the *return on investment,* whether on the IS or BS https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3442539 …pic.twitter.com/PywEAhLP21
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2/Ben Graham started this program in 1927 at the Extension Division of Columbia College. He taught in a building a few blocks from where we'll be tonight. Graham didn't teach at the business school until 1951 - and he had a pretty good student in that class -
@WarrenBuffettpic.twitter.com/ChVCS3dgFX
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Got engaged 30 years ago today. Appropriate time to share my dedication in The Success Equation. Still true!pic.twitter.com/0oxXqrSBHv
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1/A couple of thoughts. First, the spread between ROIC and cost of capital is key and growth is simply an *amplifier.* High ROIC companies with high growth rates deserve high valuations. But recall, the expected return = the cost of equity capital.pic.twitter.com/OqBA1HDS5D
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What does this year's S&P 500 total return say about next year's total return?--> Don't bother...pic.twitter.com/tiUCDLZLWA
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Recently saw analysis that attempted to quantify big moves in the stock market attributable to news about trade. If correct, what we are seeing now is unusual. This conclusion is based on the methods in this paper: https://stockmarketjumps.com/files/BBDS_BigJumps.pdf …pic.twitter.com/qBGkBSHKz1
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I spent the afternoon with Al Rappaport - my mentor, collaborator, and friend. He is an inspiration; an optimist by nature and active in mind and body. I still turn to him to learn and to learn how to teach. He is also working on some cool ideas. I am grateful for his generosity.pic.twitter.com/DNhCvR5DKT
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The first reference to this idea that I know of is in Miller and Modigliani’s 1961 paper on valuation. Read the footnote and you’ll see it’s as relevant today as it was nearly 60 years ago: https://www2.bc.edu/thomas-chemmanur/phdfincorp/MF891%20papers/MM%20dividend.pdf …pic.twitter.com/0OBEq5uWlf
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I hope this answers your question. From Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies. https://www.amazon.com/Valuation-Measuring-Managing-Companies-Finance/dp/111887370X/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_0?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=SYQX72FE8TYHRQ0NGN3F …pic.twitter.com/58eaSxYtKR
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6/After the ceremony, I was visiting with Stiritz and Tom Russo (also a great investor) and Stiritz mentioned he was criticized for buying stock in the early days because it diminished book value. I had a sidebar on this from a report I wrote in 1991 - still proud of that title!pic.twitter.com/zjqdo00Xqe
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5/Stiritz, who was known then as the smartest CEO in the food industry, gave me a vital attaboy when I was getting going, even as some of my colleagues were hinting that I should adopt more conventional analysis based on EPS and P/Es. That imprimatur made a big difference.pic.twitter.com/QWLwcNemnv
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"Public Market Equivalent" (PME) for buyout and venture funds since 1988. PME > 1.0 means private did better than public. From Patient Capital by Professors Victoria Ivashina and Josh Lerner https://www.amazon.com/Patient-Capital-Challenges-Long-Term-Investing/dp/0691186731 …pic.twitter.com/3PFkmcaNj9
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@sfiscience hosting a meeting on the Complexity of Commerce. Listening to the wisdom of Brian Arthur. Always insightful. @bgurley @halvarianpic.twitter.com/bcxe7KcPa6
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Fascinating to see how investors really make decisions. This set of questions was posed to CFA charterholders to see if they were "naturalistic" decision makers. From Chapter 16 in More Than You Know. https://www.amazon.com/More-Than-You-Know-Unconventional/dp/0231143737/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= …pic.twitter.com/Nxxs1brMe7
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Serious gap between assumed return and yield on 30-year Treasury bonds. This chart is easy to update: CalPers assumed return today is closer to 7% versus 2% on the 30-year. (This challenge is not unique to CalPers, of course.) https://www.pewtrusts.org/~/media/assets/2014/06/state_public_pension_investments_shift_over_past_30_years.pdf …pic.twitter.com/QNabobJ2os
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I also thought this, from Corrado and Hulten, is helpful:pic.twitter.com/sjGsGm2I6V
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