(In my model, the ego corresponds to the intuitive and to the motivational systems; only the analytical is able of 2nd order thinking.)
The larger point is that the ego is the very antithesis to life, as reality is anything but fixed, certain or constant.
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The expected negative emotional outcome in the short term is perceived as real as long as one remains within the boundaries set by the ego.
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As you correctly pointed out, the outcome of any experience is fundamentally unknown, and this is crucial to understand in this context.
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The ego is afraid of being invalidated by the outcome of that experience; it is afraid of being proven wrong.
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The more one relies on a static representation of self/reality as a crutch, the more they are afraid of that safety being swept away.
End of conversation
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