關於Vision Pro的投資觀點：
1. Apple展示空間運算的願景與AR/MR裝置的設計創新，但沒有展示出日常生活使用Vision Pro的必要性。相較之下，目前ChatGPT/AIGC能在可見未來改變人類生活方面更具說服力。
2. 高於預期的售價與發售日需要等待半年以上，不利短期內的投資情緒。
3.… Show more
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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)
@mingchikuo
天風國際證券分析師，分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測。An analyst at TF International Securities. Sharing observations and predictions of tech industry trends.
郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)’s Tweets
空間運算=3D交互設計+3D電腦圖像
Spatial computer = 3D interaction design + 3D computer graphics
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近期與投資人討論2023 WWDC的重點：
1. 若Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置發布成功，將對3D交互設計與3D電腦圖像帶來巨大影響 (猶如ChatGPT對AI/AIGC)。
2. 長期而言，Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的成功關鍵因素在於能否與AI/AIGC高度整合。
3. 投資人近期對Apple何時推出類似ChatGPT服務的關注度，高於Apple… Show more
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預測更新：
1. Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的大量出貨時間為4Q23底或2024年初 (vs. 先前預期的3Q23)。
2. 2023年的出貨量可能將低於市場預期。不過，對投資人而言，現在的觀察重點已非出貨量，而是新產品發布能否說服人Apple的AR/MR頭戴裝置是下一個消費電子的明星產品。
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Forecast updates:
1. Mass… Show more
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近期與投資人討論2023 WWDC的重點：
1. 若Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置發布成功，將對3D交互設計與3D電腦圖像帶來巨大影響 (猶如ChatGPT對AI/AIGC)。
2. 長期而言，Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置的成功關鍵因素在於能否與AI/AIGC高度整合。
3. 投資人近期對Apple何時推出類似ChatGPT服務的關注度，高於Apple… Show more
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聯詠更新：
1. 聯詠的2024年iPhone DDI出貨量可能將低於預期
(1) Apple對導入DDI新供應商態度轉為保守。
(2) 聯詠的2024年iPhone DDI出貨量預計將較預期少30%以上。
2. Android品牌手機目前普遍預期2H23將旺季不旺，聯詠在Android的市佔率提升可能無法抵銷今年乏善可陳的手機需求。
Novatek updates:… Show more
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我的調查與這則新聞一致，補充幾點：
bit.ly/3IvK2u0
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立訊精密可望在未來數年受益於印度設廠與iPhone事業利潤顯著提升 / Luxshare expects to benefit from the establishment of a factory in India and a significant increase in profits from the iPhone business in the coming years
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Cowell is the main beneficiary of Sharp’s potential exit from the iPhone CCM supply chain and the expanded use of the periscope for the iPhone 16, and Apple’s 2nd generation AR/MR headset
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高偉電子為Sharp可能退出iPhone CCM供應鏈、iPhone 16擴大採用潛望鏡與Apple AR/MR二代之主要受益者
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Apple AR/MR頭戴裝置發佈預測與供應鏈投資策略；高偉電子為最大受益者 / Apple AR/MR headset announcement prediction and supply chain investment strategy. Cowell is the biggest beneficiaries
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1. Microsoft對本季度整體雲端支出的正向展望，已提前反應在緯穎 (Microsoft主要伺服器供應商) 的1Q23營收與股價。
2. 然而，正如我預測Microsoft伺服器訂單下修主要在2H23。緯穎下半年的Microsoft伺服器訂單下修，可能代表Microsoft雖持續提升AI投資，但整體伺服器採購量將在2H23放緩。
3.… Show more
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緯穎營運動能恐因Microsoft與Meta顯著砍單伺服器訂單而承壓 / Wiwynn’s business momentum may be under pressure due to Microsoft and Meta’s significant server order cuts
link.medium.com/rKJFI2ksgzb
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緯穎營運動能恐因Microsoft與Meta顯著砍單伺服器訂單而承壓 / Wiwynn’s business momentum may be under pressure due to Microsoft and Meta’s significant server order cuts
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Intel is the main loser of Sapphire Rapids' lower-than-expected demand and Microsoft's significant reduction in Sapphire Rapids server orders due to weak server market demand
My latest research indicates that:
1. Intel's Sapphire Rapids is expected to start mass shipments in… Show more
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[Prediction update and revision]
1. The new 15" MacBook model should be named MacBook Air.
2. To reiterate, the upcoming 15" MacBook Air will feature the M2 series and offer two processor spec options. However, two options are more likely to be M2 with different cores (similar… Show more
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Prediction updates:
1. New 15" MacBook would go to mass production in mid-1H23, and launch date may be 2Q23 or later.
2. New 15" MacBook may offer two CPU options, M2 (with 35W adapter) & M2 Pro (with 67W adapter).
3. I haven't heard of any plans for rumored 12" MacBook yet. twitter.com/mingchikuo/sta…
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Apple不是第一次想採用半導體製程的鏡頭 (Metalens/Wafer-level lens)。早在iPod nano時，Apple就曾考慮要讓iPod nano配備Wafer-level lens相機，而采鈺也是當時跟Apple合作開發Wafer-level lens的廠商之一。然而，因技術限制故最後該計畫停止。
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This isn't the first time Apple has considered… Show more
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采鈺為Apple 2024年採用超透鏡 (Metalens) 之主要受益者；歌爾股份為值得關注的概念股 / VisEra is the primary beneficiary of Apple’s metalens adoption in 2024, with Goertek as a concept stock worth watching
link.medium.com/xxrEkPqaXyb
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I think SE 4 is not currently part of Apple's new product planning for 2024/2025.
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Updates on iPhone SE 4 research and prediction:
1. I previously predicted that the iPhone SE 4 would be a derivative model of the iPhone 14. However, my latest research indicates that this derivative model will likely be an engineering prototype for Apple in-house 5G baseband… twitter.com/mingchikuo/sta… Show more
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Updates on iPhone SE 4 research and prediction:
1. I previously predicted that the iPhone SE 4 would be a derivative model of the iPhone 14. However, my latest research indicates that this derivative model will likely be an engineering prototype for Apple in-house 5G baseband… Show more
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[Update] Apple has restarted the iPhone SE 4 and will adopt an in-house 5G baseband chip. The significant decline in Qualcomm's Apple orders in the foreseeable future is a foregone conclusion. twitter.com/mingchikuo/sta…
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采鈺為Apple 2024年採用超透鏡 (Metalens) 之主要受益者；歌爾股份為值得關注的概念股 / VisEra is the primary beneficiary of Apple’s metalens adoption in 2024, with Goertek as a concept stock worth watching
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Two iPhone 15 Pro models’ removal of solid-state button design negatively affects Cirrus Logic and AAC / 兩款iPhone 15 Pro取消固態按鍵設計不利Cirrus Logic與瑞聲科技
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Update on the rumored new 27" Apple display predictions:
1. It's slated for mass production in 2024 or early 2025, boasting all the features one would expect from a high-end monitor.
2. Utilizing mini-LED technology, and the most notable design change is to switch the material… Show more
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我的最新調查顯示，在未來數個季度內，穩懋的營運動能將持續改善，不受主要客戶Lumtentum訂單趨勢轉弱影響，關鍵在於磊晶圓 (epi wafer) 與手機功率放大器 (PA) 訂單持續成長。
1. 穩懋的epi wafer已通過Apple驗證，預計將自2H23開始首度出貨給Apple並用於iPhone 15系列。穩懋的epi… Show more
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Sony will replace Lumentum (design) / Win Semi (production) as the exclusive ToF VCSEL supplier for iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max. Lumentum/Win Semi will face long-term structural risks in the VCSEL market.
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Some critical updates on the sales/shipments of AR/VR headset devices / 有些關於AR/VR頭戴裝置的銷售/出貨關鍵更新
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Because Apple isn't very optimistic about the AR/MR headset announcement recreating the astounding "iPhone moment," the mass production schedule for assembly has been pushed back by another 1-2 months to mid-to-late 3Q23. The delay also adds uncertainty to whether the new device… Show more
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蘋果鏡頭供應商的2個風險：高庫存導致2Q23衰退幅度高於預期，與供應商無法自潛望鏡相機鏡頭中獲利 / Apple camera lens suppliers face two risks: high inventory levels leading to a weaker-than-expected 2Q23 & suppliers being unable to profit from link.medium.com/k78Ii5W0zyb… Show more
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I think this is likely the USB-C version of the AirPods Pro 2, with mass shipments expected in 2Q23-3Q23. By the way, Apple currently appears to have no plans for USB-C versions of the AirPods 2 & 3.
我覺得這應該是AirPods Pro… Show more
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Exclusive: iOS 16.4 references new AirPods with the model number A3048 and a new AirPods case with the model number A2968
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IQE將取代聯亞，成為iPhone 15系列的proximity sensor的磊晶晶圓 (epi wafer) 獨家供應商。所有iPhone 15機型雖均採用與iPhone 14 Pro機型相同的動態島設計，但差別在於iPhone 14 Pro將proximity sensor放置屏下/在動態島外，而iPhone 15系列則在動態島面積幾乎沒有變化下，將proximity… Show more
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因20W USB-C充電器出貨量預計將在2023年顯著成長30–40% YoY至2.3–2.4億顆，有利Power Integrations營收與獲利成長。
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Power Integrations也是Apple因iPhone 15系列改採USB-C而顯著提升20W USB-C充電器出貨預估的主要贏家。Power Integrations獨家供應為Apple客製化的20W USB-C充電器的主芯片， 整合MOSFET、次级同步整流控制器等。
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integrating MOSFET, synchronous rectification controllers, etc. The shipment of 20W USB-C chargers is anticipated to grow significantly by 30-40% YoY to 230-240 million units in 2023, which benefits Power Integrations' revenue and profit growth.
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Power Integrations is also the main winner of Apple's marked increase in shipment forecasts for 20W USB-C chargers, thanks to the transition to USB-C in the iPhone 15 series. Power Integrations exclusively supplies the main chip of 20W USB-C charger customized for Apple,
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領益智造為iPhone 15系列改採USB-C與Apple顯著調升20W USB-C充電出貨預估的主要贏家 / LY iTech is the primary beneficiary of the transition to USB-C for the iPhone 15 series and Apple's significant increase in 20W USB-C charger shipment estimations
bit.ly/3n97JQD
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領益智造為iPhone 15系列改採USB-C與Apple顯著調升20W USB-C充電出貨預估的主要贏家 / LY iTech is the primary beneficiary of the transition to USB-C for the iPhone 15 series and Apple's significant increase in 20W USB-C charger shipment estimations
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天馬首度打入Apple供應鏈，為Apple再造智能家庭策略的新受益者 / Tianma is set to debut in Apple’s supply chain, becoming a new beneficiary of Apple’s revamped smart home strategy
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不過，一旦SE 4開始採用Apple自研5G基頻晶片，Qualcomm的Apple訂單在可見未來顯著衰退已成定局。
4. 若SE 4在1H24量產順利，則技術門檻更低的iPad與Apple Watch也將很快捨棄Qualcomm的基頻晶片。Apple的硬體毛利率將受益於改採自研5G基頻晶片，Qualcomm的Apple事業則在未來2-3年內將顯著衰退
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2. 新款SE 4預計將採用由4nm (與5nm相似) 生產的Apple自研5G基頻晶片，目前預計僅支援Sub-6GHz。
3. 目前尚未確定iPhone 16系列是否將採用Apple自研5G基頻晶片，關鍵在於Apple能否克服毫米波與衛星通訊的技術挑戰。
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Apple近期已重啟iPhone SE 4並將採Apple自研5G基頻晶片。Qualcomm的Apple訂單在可見未來顯著衰退已成定局
1. 我的最新調查指出，Apple重新啟動了iPhone SE 4，最大的改變為採用OLED螢幕而非LCD螢幕。從整體設計上看，SE 4更像是以6.1" iPhone 14為基礎的小改款。
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This move will benefit Apple's hardware gross margin, while Qualcomm's Apple business will decline significantly in the next 2-3 years.
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4. Assuming the mass production of the SE 4 goes smoothly in 1H24, the iPad and Apple Watch, which have lower technical requirements, will soon abandon Qualcomm's baseband chips, too.
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Nevertheless, once the SE 4 starts using Apple's 5G baseband chip, it's a foregone conclusion that Qualcomm's Apple orders will decline significantly in the foreseeable future.
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