郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

天風國際證券分析師，分享科技產業趨勢觀察與預測。An analyst at TF International Securities. Sharing observations and predictions of tech industry trends.

Social Media InfluencerTaiwantfisec.com/zh_HKJoined March 2011

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

[Analysis] Apple在新14"與16" MacBook Pro量產前砍單20-30%，為高階ABF與Mini-LED的潛在結構性風險 / Apple cuts shipment forecasts for new 14" & 16" MacBook Pro by 20-30% before mass production, and it's a structural risk to the high-end ABF & Mini-LED sectors

medium.com

Apple在新款14"與16" MacBook Pro量產前砍單20–30%，為高階ABF與Mini-LED產業的潛在結構性風險 / Apple cuts shipment forecasts…

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Sep 1

[Update] The iPhone 14's mass production schedule in India this year is still about six weeks behind China, but the gap has improved significantly. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that India and China will be able to produce the new iPhone 15 at the same time next year.

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

· Aug 5

My latest survey indicates Foxconn's iPhone production site in India will ship the new 6.1" iPhone 14 almost simultaneously with China for the first time in 2H22 (India being one quarter or more behind in the past).

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Sep 1

(4/4) 5. It is worth noting whether Chinese clients will directly/indirectly place rush orders to increase inventory to reduce the potential risk from US gov's possible expansion of sales restrictions. If so, that might benefit supply chain utilization rates in the short term.

(3/4) 4. The impact of the sales restriction on suppliers such as TSMC is limited, but investors worry US gov may expand restrictions on more chips which could affect more server-related or other products. This uncertainty could be a structural risk for the semiconductor sector.

(2/4) 2. AI development is one of a country's core competitiveness, and its applications include aerospace and military, etc. 3. Affected AI chips of Nvidia (H100 & A100) and AMD (MI250) are all made by TSMC's advanced nodes.

(1/4) My take on the US government's restriction on Nvidia and AMD's AI chip sales to China and Russia. 1. China leads the world in AI patent filing (bit.ly/3B0gQro), and US's restriction on AI chip sales would secure the US lead in the AI area.

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Aug 30

[Analysis] Minebea與大立光為iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM規格升級與Pro機種出貨比重增加的贏家 / Minebea and Largan are the winners of the iPhone 14 Pro ultra-wide camera VCM spec upgrade and the increase in Pro model shipments

@mingchikuo

medium.com

Minebea與大立光為iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM規格升級與Pro機種出貨比重增加的贏家 / Minebea and Largan are the winners of the…

受益於iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機規格升級與Pro機種的出貨比重增加， iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM出貨量/產值同比增長25–30%/65–70% (與iPhone 13 Pro相較)。

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Aug 30

(4/4) Other components' price increases are limited. Sony (CIS), Minebea (first VCM supplier), Largan (second supplier), and LG Innotek (CCM) are the significant beneficiaries of the ultra-wide camera upgrade.

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(3/4) I predict two iPhone 14 Pro models' ultra-wide cameras will upgrade to 1.4µm (vs. iPhone 13 Pro's 1.0µm). CIS (CMOS image sensor), VCM (voice coil motor), and CCM (compact camera module) have a significant unit price increase in this upgrade, with about 70%, 45%, and 40%.

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(2/4) Sony (CIS)、Minebea (VCM一供)、Largan (VCM二供) 與LG Innotek (CCM) 為超廣角相機升級的顯著受益者。

(1/4) 我預測兩款 iPhone 14 Pro 的超廣角相機將升級到 1.4µm (vs. iPhone 13 Pro的1.0µm)。 CIS (影像感測器)、VCM (音圈馬達)、CCM (相機模組) 在此次升級中單價漲幅較大，分別為70%、45%與40%左右，其他零部件漲價幅度有限。

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[Analysis] Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication / 傳聞中的iPhone 14支持衛星通訊的調查更新

@mingchikuo

medium.com

Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication / 傳聞中的 iPhone 14…

Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication.

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Aug 26

(4/4) 台積電的3nm晶片生產時間約4個月，所以即便台積電宣布將在9月開始量產3nm，最快也必須要等到2023年1月才能出貨，這也是為什麼台積電提供3nm將在1H23開始貢獻營收之財務預測。

(3/4) EMS最晚必須從10月開始購買用於4Q22量產產品之零組件，但是3nm晶片必須要到2023年1月，所以我認為在4Q22量產的新款MacBook Pro與iPad Pro將採用新的、但可能不是3nm的處理器。

(2/4) TSMC's 3nm chip production cycle is about 4 months, so though TSMC said it would start mass production of 3nm from Sep, it would take until Jan 2023 to ship at the earliest. It's why TSMC offered the guidance that 3nm will contribute revenue from 1H23.

(1/4) EMS must buy components from Oct at the latest for products that will enter mass production in 4Q22, but 3nm chips won't be available until Jan 2023. So I think new MacBook Pro & iPad Pro, which will enter mass production in 4Q22, will adopt new but unlikely 3nm processors.

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

· Aug 22

New 14" and 16" MacBook Pro with new processors will enter mass production in 4Q22. Given TSMC's guidance that the 3nm will contribute revenue starting in 1H23, processors of 14" and 16" MacBook Pro models may still adopt the 5nm advanced node.

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(5/5) This first mover advantage is conducive to Luxshare's long-term development amid the deglobalization trend.

(4/5) I estimate the shipment proportion of Apple Watch 8 from Vietnam will significantly increase to 60-70%. Luxshare is the leader in building production lines in non-China countries among Chinese Apple suppliers.

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(3/5) The media reported that Apple Watch would start mass production in Vietnam. But it's already shipping, as I know. Luxshare ICT, Apple Watch's major assembler, has production lines in China and Vietnam and has shipped from Vietnam since Apple Watch 7.

(2/5) 立訊精密是Apple中國供應商中，在非中國國家建設產線的領先者，這種先發優勢有利於立訊精密在逆全球化趨勢下的長遠發展。

(1/5) 媒體報導Apple Watch將在越南開始量產，但據我所知它已經在出貨了。 Apple Watch的主要組裝商立訊精密在中國和越南都有生產線，並且從Apple Watch 7就開始就從越南出貨。我估計Apple Watch 8從越南出貨的比重會大幅提升到60-70%。

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(2/2) The global recession risk is still growing and unpredictable, so announcing/shipping the iPhone as soon as possible may minimize the impact of recession risk on demand.

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(1/2) The iPhone 14 announcement/shipping date may be earlier than iPhone 13/12, which could be one of the reasons why Apple offered a positive outlook for 3Q22 from the last earnings call.

bloomberg.com

Apple Targets Sept. 7 for iPhone 14 Launch in Flurry of New Devices

Apple Inc. is aiming to hold a launch event on Sept. 7 to unveil the iPhone 14 line, according to people with knowledge of the matter, rolling out the latest version of a product that generates more...

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(5/5) 新款AWS Inferentia有望進一步增強AWS的競爭力和成長動能。對世芯-KY而言，單價更高的新AWS Inferentia有利於營收/利潤，並增加美國客戶的比例以降低地緣政治風險。

(4/5) 我的最新調查指出，全新設計AWS Inferentia晶片 (世芯-KY是ASIC設計服務提供商) 將於4Q22開始量產/出貨。由於採用7nm先進製程 (vs. 既有的16nm)，故顯著改善性能和延遲。從Amazon上次的財務會議來看，AWS 的營收擊敗市場共識，是經濟衰退期間的關鍵利潤驅動。

(3/5) For Alchip, the new AWS Inferentia with a higher unit price can benefit revenue/profits and increase the proportion of US customers to lower geopolitical risks.

(2/5) From Amazon's last earnings call, AWS's revenue beats the market consensus and is a critical profit driver amid the recession. The new AWS Inferentia can strengthen AWS's competitiveness and growth momentum further.

(1/5) My latest survey indicates all-new design AWS Inferentia chip (Alchip being the ASIC design service provider) will start mass production/shipments in 4Q22. Thanks to the adoption of the 7nm advanced node (vs. existing 16nm), it markedly improves performance & latency.

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(2/2) In addition, flexible production scheduling by assemblers should also help lower the impact of power outages. However, need to pay attention to whether similar incidents will occur again in the next few months and affect Apple's new product shipments during the peak season.

(1/2) A temporary power outage in Sichuan may affect iPad assembly plants in Chengdu (Foxconn) and Chongqing (Compal). Although it's difficult to assess impacts on production currently, impacts should be limited if the power outage can end on August 20.

reuters.com

UPDATE 3-China lithium hub Sichuan cuts power supply to industry amid heatwave

Producers of lithium, fertilisers and other metals shut plants or curbed output in China's southwestern Sichuan province on Monday after it rationed industrial electricity consumption amid its worst...

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(2/2) Hon Hai is the major EMS for iPhone 14 series (with a 60-70% order proportion), so its revenue will markedly benefit from an increased iPhone 14 series ASP. No wonder Hon Hai raises full-year performance to “growing” from “roughly flat.”

(1/2) Hon Hai/Foxconn is one of the winners of the increased ASP of iPhone 14 series. I estimated iPhone 14 series ASP would increase by about 15% (vs. iPhone 13 series ASP) to $1,000-1,050 (USD) due to two iPhone 14 Pro's price hikes & higher shipment proportion.

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Hon Hai Technology Group (Foxconn)

@HonHai_Foxconn

· Aug 10

We achieved the highest-ever 2Q revenue and net profit attribute to the parent company. 1H 2022 revenue totaled NT$ 2.9 T. Based on current business outlook, we raise full-year performance to “growing” from “roughly flat”. FY2022 Q2 results: bit.ly/3dlk9jx

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Although some investors have recently worried that the mass production and shipment schedule of the iPhone 14 models may be affected by geopolitics, my latest survey indicates that there are currently no impacts on the supply chain of the iPhone 14 models.

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郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)

@mingchikuo

Aug 9

I predict Apple will launch USB-C-capable charging cases for all AirPods models in 2023. However, the charging case of the new AirPods Pro 2 launched in 2H22 may still support Lightning.