郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo)’s Tweets

Sep 19

(3/5) I expect that most of the suppliers should also receive order increase requests for iPhone 14 Pro models from Apple in the next few weeks.

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(2/5) Based on the production line conversion rate, it's equivalent to an increase in the shipment forecast of iPhone 14 Pro models in 4Q22 by about 10%. Only a few component suppliers' order changes currently reflect Hon Hai's production line conversion (e.g., Samsung Display).

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(1/5) Due to strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models, which will help improve Apple's product mix/iPhone ASP in 4Q22.

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Sep 12

[Analysis] iPhone 14 首周末線上預購調查與分析 (根據Apple在主要市場線上商店的交貨時間) / iPhone 14 first weekend online pre-order survey and analysis (based on the delivery time of Apple's online stores in major markets)

iPhone 14 首周末線上預購調查與分析 (根據Apple在主要市場線上商店的交貨時間) / iPhone 14 first weekend online pre-order survey…

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(2/2) In addition, Apple should also rename the advanced nodes adopted by the processors. E.g., A16 Pro/A16 is made by N4 Pro/N4 Plus. Apple will stay at 3nm for the next few years, so starting to name advanced nodes may also be critical for marketing.

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(1/2) I think Apple should name A16 as A16 Pro and A15 used by two iPhone 14 standard models as A16/A15 Plus. Maybe it helps promote two iPhone 14 standard models.

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(2/2) However, it is worth noting Qualcomm's transfer of high-end SoC orders from Samsung to TSMC, as well as the Android brands/Google's aggressive strategies for foldable phones, may help improve Android camp's disadvantage in the next few years in the high-end market.

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(1/2) One of reasons why Apple can do the new product segmentation strategy is even though hardware innovation has become more challenging and the market has matured, Android camp still poses no threat to Apple in the high-end market due to brand value & ecosystem disadvantages.

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(2/2) Taking a step further, Apple will also start creating differentiation between the iPhone 15 Pro Max and the iPhone 15 Pro. It's the best practice via a precise product segmentation strategy to generate more sales/profits in a mature market.

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(1/2) I believe Apple will create more differentiation between iPhone 15 Pros and iPhone 15 standard models to increase Pro shipment allocation and the new iPhone ASP.

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The iPhone 14 series ASP (average selling price) is still about 10% higher in 2H22 vs. 13 series in 2H21 thanks to higher 14 Pro shipment allocation and 14 Plus replacing 13 mini despite no price hike for 14 Pros.

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· Aug 10

(1/2) Hon Hai/Foxconn is one of the winners of the increased ASP of iPhone 14 series. I estimated iPhone 14 series ASP would increase by about 15% (vs. iPhone 13 series ASP) to $1,000-1,050 (USD) due to two iPhone 14 Pro's price hikes & higher shipment proportion. twitter.com/HonHai_Foxconn…

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Sep 9

(2/2) Pre-orders for Apple's high-end products have always been more popular in the early stage. This year's order allocation of Pro models is higher vs. previous years from this survey, reflecting Apple's product segmentation strategy change (only Pros receive major updates).

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(1/2) Latest offline pre-order survey for iPhone 14 series in China 1. The total order allocation for two 14 Pros is about 85%. 2. 14 Plus has the lowest order allocation (less than 5%).

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[Analysis] Apple在新14"與16" MacBook Pro量產前砍單20-30%，為高階ABF與Mini-LED的潛在結構性風險 / Apple cuts shipment forecasts for new 14" & 16" MacBook Pro by 20-30% before mass production, and it's a structural risk to the high-end ABF & Mini-LED sectors

Apple在新款14"與16" MacBook Pro量產前砍單20–30%，為高階ABF與Mini-LED產業的潛在結構性風險 / Apple cuts shipment forecasts…

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Sep 1

[Update] The iPhone 14's mass production schedule in India this year is still about six weeks behind China, but the gap has improved significantly. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect that India and China will be able to produce the new iPhone 15 at the same time next year.

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· Aug 5

My latest survey indicates Foxconn's iPhone production site in India will ship the new 6.1" iPhone 14 almost simultaneously with China for the first time in 2H22 (India being one quarter or more behind in the past).

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Sep 1

(4/4) 5. It is worth noting whether Chinese clients will directly/indirectly place rush orders to increase inventory to reduce the potential risk from US gov's possible expansion of sales restrictions. If so, that might benefit supply chain utilization rates in the short term.

(3/4) 4. The impact of the sales restriction on suppliers such as TSMC is limited, but investors worry US gov may expand restrictions on more chips which could affect more server-related or other products. This uncertainty could be a structural risk for the semiconductor sector.

(2/4) 2. AI development is one of a country's core competitiveness, and its applications include aerospace and military, etc. 3. Affected AI chips of Nvidia (H100 & A100) and AMD (MI250) are all made by TSMC's advanced nodes.

(1/4) My take on the US government's restriction on Nvidia and AMD's AI chip sales to China and Russia. 1. China leads the world in AI patent filing (bit.ly/3B0gQro), and US's restriction on AI chip sales would secure the US lead in the AI area.

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[Analysis] Minebea與大立光為iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM規格升級與Pro機種出貨比重增加的贏家 / Minebea and Largan are the winners of the iPhone 14 Pro ultra-wide camera VCM spec upgrade and the increase in Pro model shipments

Minebea與大立光為iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM規格升級與Pro機種出貨比重增加的贏家 / Minebea and Largan are the winners of the…

受益於iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機規格升級與Pro機種的出貨比重增加， iPhone 14 Pro超廣角相機VCM出貨量/產值同比增長25–30%/65–70% (與iPhone 13 Pro相較)。

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Aug 30

(4/4) Other components' price increases are limited. Sony (CIS), Minebea (first VCM supplier), Largan (second supplier), and LG Innotek (CCM) are the significant beneficiaries of the ultra-wide camera upgrade.

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(3/4) I predict two iPhone 14 Pro models' ultra-wide cameras will upgrade to 1.4µm (vs. iPhone 13 Pro's 1.0µm). CIS (CMOS image sensor), VCM (voice coil motor), and CCM (compact camera module) have a significant unit price increase in this upgrade, with about 70%, 45%, and 40%.

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(2/4) Sony (CIS)、Minebea (VCM一供)、Largan (VCM二供) 與LG Innotek (CCM) 為超廣角相機升級的顯著受益者。

(1/4) 我預測兩款 iPhone 14 Pro 的超廣角相機將升級到 1.4µm (vs. iPhone 13 Pro的1.0µm)。 CIS (影像感測器)、VCM (音圈馬達)、CCM (相機模組) 在此次升級中單價漲幅較大，分別為70%、45%與40%左右，其他零部件漲價幅度有限。

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[Analysis] Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication / 傳聞中的iPhone 14支持衛星通訊的調查更新

Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication / 傳聞中的 iPhone 14…

Survey updates for rumored’s iPhone 14 support for satellite communication.

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Aug 26

(4/4) 台積電的3nm晶片生產時間約4個月，所以即便台積電宣布將在9月開始量產3nm，最快也必須要等到2023年1月才能出貨，這也是為什麼台積電提供3nm將在1H23開始貢獻營收之財務預測。

(3/4) EMS最晚必須從10月開始購買用於4Q22量產產品之零組件，但是3nm晶片必須要到2023年1月，所以我認為在4Q22量產的新款MacBook Pro與iPad Pro將採用新的、但可能不是3nm的處理器。

(2/4) TSMC's 3nm chip production cycle is about 4 months, so though TSMC said it would start mass production of 3nm from Sep, it would take until Jan 2023 to ship at the earliest. It's why TSMC offered the guidance that 3nm will contribute revenue from 1H23.

(1/4) EMS must buy components from Oct at the latest for products that will enter mass production in 4Q22, but 3nm chips won't be available until Jan 2023. So I think new MacBook Pro & iPad Pro, which will enter mass production in 4Q22, will adopt new but unlikely 3nm processors.

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