The biggest challenge isn't building good models, its using them and sticking with them.pic.twitter.com/PtcFaHIfsz
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I just wasn’t even sure I was reading the graph correctly. But that strikes me as an asymmetric bet, though. The small downside risk has a BIG negative payoff. Payoff space and probability space are very different... I’ll have to dig into the NYT model!
This has been the subject of some intense debates in our offices. The career risk is very real if you follow the model and get burned. How do you balance the short-term (winning this down) with the long-term (winning this game, Super Bowl, etc.).
Too many unknowns, but I do agree that many teams punt too often. Vrabel might be trusting the model more than the rest of the league. He's going to be an interesting coach to follow.
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