I believe that: - Podcasters are producing incredible content. - Podcast listeners are one of the best audiences in the world. I'm highly skeptical of any outside source wanting to take these positive attributes, and then "juice them" to get better returns.
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Discoverability is already working: slow & steady, more and more people are discovering podcasts. The VCs who want to “fix discoverability” in podcasting don’t give a shit about more people discovering *your* show. They want to juice the numbers so they get their 100x returns.
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Trust me: “make a podcast so good that people tell their friends about it” is a way better approach than “I hope the platform’s algorithm features my show.”
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Let’s talk about “social audio apps” (like Clubhouse): I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening. It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking/social event.” I think it competes more with meetups than podcasts.
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Predictions about Clubhouse vs podcasts: 1. Podcast listeners increases by ~20% in 2021. 2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. Will be primarily used by early adopters, but not the general population. 3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio app usage will diminish.
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I enjoy conversations on Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces, but I think folks are too bullish on the format.
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I believe we’ll see an increasing amount of “Clubhouse burnout:” - hosting a room takes hours of time (my guess is the average is at least 3 hours) - paradoxically: as more participants join a room the less opportunity for participation there is - “marketers ruin everything”
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Just published all my thoughts here: "Podcasts and capital"https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital …
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Listening to
@nickfthilton on@HighFiveRPG’s podcast. He and I seem to have lots of agreement here.
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building
Analysts at CITI aren't impressed: "To date, we haven't seen a material positive inflection in app downloads or Premium subscriptions."