Big Money™ investors are hoping podcasting will provide them with YouTube-level returns. (Sequoia got a 57x return on its $9 million investment in YouTube). I'm highly skeptical that podcasting is ever going to provide that level of returns. Audio's growth curve is different.
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I believe that: - Podcasters are producing incredible content. - Podcast listeners are one of the best audiences in the world. I'm highly skeptical of any outside source wanting to take these positive attributes, and then "juice them" to get better returns.
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The amount of $$$ being invested into podcasting is puzzling. In the last 2 years, Spotify has spent $1 billion on podcast acquisitions. In 2021, ad revenue for the ENTIRE podcast ecosystem is slated to be $1 billion ($782M in 2020). There's a disconnect here.
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I'm not the only one scratching their head at Spotify's podcast spending spree.
Analysts at CITI aren't impressed: "To date, we haven't seen a material positive inflection in app downloads or Premium subscriptions."https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/15/spotifys-big-bet-on-podcasts-is-failing-citi-says.html …3 odpowiedzi 1 podany dalej 25 polubionychPokaż ten wątek -
VCs are hungry for there to be a "centralized platform" for podcasting, where "discovery, consumption, and monetization can happen in the same place." That desire serves no one but VCs and the centralized platform. One centralized platform = bad for creators.
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Currently, podcasters have leverage because they own the connection with their audience. YouTubers don't have that. They're at the whim of the algorithm and monetization gods. Trading leverage for "more distribution" is like making a deal with the devil. The devil always wins.
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I'm not opposed to podcasters selling ads. But I am opposed to one centralized "AdSense for podcasting." Podcasters: you're giving up all your leverage for low CPM garbage ads! (Plus: Anchor's experiment in this space is failing).https://www.theverge.com/2021/1/21/22241066/spotify-anchor-sponsorships-ad-money-spend-podcasting …
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There's a reason creators are leaving platforms like YouTube and going to more open platforms like: -
@SubstackInc,@ConvertKit (email) -@WordPress,@TryGhost (RSS) -@podia,@memberful (CSV) You can take your email list, RSS feed, customer list anywhere. YOU OWN IT.1 odpowiedź 3 podane dalej 49 polubionychPokaż ten wątek -
I’m worried about overcapitalization. Investing $1 billion+ into a podcast ecosystem that didn’t have $1 billion in total revenue last year... is a problem. Overcapitalization has knock-on effects that won’t be good for podcasting.
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W odpowiedzi do @mijustin
What are some of the knock-on effects of overcapitalization? Ignoring the obvious Joe Rogan example...
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The negative effects of overcapitalization on podcasting: - power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™ - small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down because of competitive pressure - productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts
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