Podcasting has been growing "slow & steady" for a decade. Last year "monthly listeners" grew by 15%. The year before it was 23%. Before that, it was 8%. These numbers are healthy but don't represent meteoric growth.pic.twitter.com/iF8xs6oA1b
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The negative effects of overcapitalization on podcasting: - power becomes more centralized in MegaCorps™ - small, indie companies are acquired, or have to shut down - productions get funding in the near-term, but implode when bubble bursts - ultimately, people lose their jobs
Quibi is the perfect case study for overcapitalization. Injecting $1.75 billion into an industry doesn’t do anyone any good if it’s not sustainable. Shows get cancelled. People lose jobs. Dreams are dashed.https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/01/quibis-1-75b-experiment-ends-with-roku-acquisition-for-less-than-100m/ …
I was sitting on a chairlift with a guy who asked me what I do.
“I’m in podcasting.”
“What! No way! I just discovered podcasts. I’ve been listening in the truck all the time.”
A friend recommended a show. He found the @ApplePodcasts app, and listened.
Discovery is working.
Discoverability is already working: slow & steady, more and more people are discovering podcasts. The VCs who want to “fix discoverability” in podcasting don’t give a shit about more people discovering *your* show. They want to juice the numbers so they get their 100x returns.
Trust me: “make a podcast so good that people tell their friends about it” is a way better approach than “I hope the platform’s algorithm features my show.”
Let’s talk about “social audio apps” (like Clubhouse): I’m still not convinced that social audio will replace (or significantly reduce) podcast listening. It’s less “audio entertainment” and more “networking/social event.” I think it competes more with meetups than podcasts.
Predictions about Clubhouse vs podcasts: 1. Podcast listeners increases by ~20% in 2021. 2. Social audio won’t be widely adopted in 2021. Will be primarily used by early adopters, but not the general population. 3. Once the pandemic ends, social audio app usage will diminish.
I enjoy conversations on Clubhouse and Twitter Spaces, but I think folks are too bullish on the format.
I believe we’ll see an increasing amount of “Clubhouse burnout:” - hosting a room takes hours of time (my guess is the average is at least 3 hours) - paradoxically: as more participants join a room the less opportunity for participation there is - “marketers ruin everything”
Just published all my thoughts here: "Podcasts and capital"https://justinjackson.ca/podcasts-and-capital …
Listening to @nickfthilton on @HighFiveRPG’s podcast.
He and I seem to have lots of agreement here. 
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