A series of bad ideas can lead to a good idea. But it's unlikely that focusing on a mediocre idea will transform it into something great.
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Multi-year investment is asking too much to know if an idea is good or bad. The best way to validate if a business idea is good or bad is to use a mix of methods from Zero to One and The Mom Test. Identify cognitive dissonance and do in-depth customer discovery.
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I was just using that as an example; I agree that (in business) you should know before that. But even ideas that seem good after customer interviews may still not have the momentum you need. At each stage (pre-launch, launch, first 6 months, etc) you need to feel it out.
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