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So what percentage of the state's population live in those 33 counties?
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Enough combined with others that Trump won Ohio by eight points.
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That's interesting. I'm assuming these are rural counties? Since Trump had about an average Republican vote share in Ohio, does that mean he has some of the lowest percentages in urban counties? It looks like a reflection of self-sorting in our ever more polarized elections.
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Ohio’s Republican % for President is usually very close to the national average. It’s usually within a half of a percentage point to 2 percentage points. The six-point difference in 2016 was the highest going back to 1960 when Nixon 4 points better than he did nationally.
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Using 1856 as a benchmark is easy, until you remember that the parties have pretty much flipped positions on every major issue since that time. Apples and oranges.
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Interesting point Brad - Here is a map showing where Trump had the highest of any republican candidate in the last 10 Presidential elections. (1980-2016) He had the highest percentage in 38 counties (dark red) and the second highest percentage in 22 counties.pic.twitter.com/rYUqW012Mu
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Also, no one disputes Trump had a good year here in 2016 (or that Rs do well in off-cycles). That said, his team's commitment to being here early and often puts the lie to the "OH is a red state" narrative.
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Also important to remember the source of this data (a Republican operative and former press flak). Statistics are objective things...but how they are presented (and to what ends) matters.
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I am proud to have worked for George Voinovich and Mike DeWine, two of the most accomplished elected officials in Ohio history. But that doesn’t change statistics or my analysis of them.
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