I hope I’m wrong but in order of likeliness I think the next 10-15 yrs is: 1. US war with China, China ascends. 2. No hard war but US fades into second place globally, like EU today. 3. US turns corner. We build skyscrapers in 14 days, a green grid, etc. How do we invert this?
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Replying to @justindross
china is an energy poor, totalitarian state with a bad international brand and an addiction to free trade. it needs the US. but the US does not need china.
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Replying to @micsolana @justindross
I agree with Mike that we have enough leverage to avoid aspects of scenario 1 and 2 but currently not enough cultural willpower or shared values to achieve scenario 3.
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Replying to @KyleTibbitts @justindross
agree, i don’t think china is ascending to global dominance, but i also don’t think america is building. it’s unfortunately possible *no one* ascends. we could be looking at global decline.
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No such thing as a global decline without a truly global integrated economy. Our loss is the 2nd/3rd worlds gain
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Replying to @AdamNeumannsCoS @micsolana and
The dark ages were the Islamic golden age, and China flourished somewhere in there too
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the zero sum notion there must always be winners and losers is just not reality. everyone can be a winner. everyone can be a loser.
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Replying to @micsolana @AdamNeumannsCoS and
Agreed, but that necessitates a policy shift. Current posture is highly oppositional. Unfortunately, that might make a zero-sum outcome more likely
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