billionaire media tycoon and mayor of san francisco. vp @foundersfund. ringleader @hereticon. editor-in-chief @ pirate wires 
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I hope I’m wrong but in order of likeliness I think the next 10-15 yrs is: 1. US war with China, China ascends. 2. No hard war but US fades into second place globally, like EU today. 3. US turns corner. We build skyscrapers in 14 days, a green grid, etc. How do we invert this?
china is an energy poor, totalitarian state with a bad international brand and an addiction to free trade. it needs the US. but the US does not need china.
I agree with Mike that we have enough leverage to avoid aspects of scenario 1 and 2 but currently not enough cultural willpower or shared values to achieve scenario 3.
agree, i don’t think china is ascending to global dominance, but i also don’t think america is building. it’s unfortunately possible *no one* ascends. we could be looking at global decline.
the first two don’t matter if they succeed with the chinafrica initiative + one belt one road. US international brand rapidly declining. does not mean we’re out of time, but the window is closing
Shared this w JD in 2018, DoD + co assessment of different scenarios where US loses in different wars - first time there’s been an instance where we lose in a scenario involving China https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf …
Agree, China took a huge global reputation and credibility hit this year
Peter Zeihan makes this case well
As mentioned in other replies I think he is wrong about both the energy piece and the conventional navy mattering. He’s right about food and our oceanic natural defenses
China is winning on GDP, brand hasn’t stopped them from making huge inroads into Africa and Southeast Asia.
Also bad demographics
I think energy poor changes fast. They have Russia short term at least, plus Iran. And nuclear and solar medium term if they need it.
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