I hope I’m wrong but in order of likeliness I think the next 10-15 yrs is: 1. US war with China, China ascends. 2. No hard war but US fades into second place globally, like EU today. 3. US turns corner. We build skyscrapers in 14 days, a green grid, etc. How do we invert this?
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I agree with Mike that we have enough leverage to avoid aspects of scenario 1 and 2 but currently not enough cultural willpower or shared values to achieve scenario 3.
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agree, i don’t think china is ascending to global dominance, but i also don’t think america is building. it’s unfortunately possible *no one* ascends. we could be looking at global decline.
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the first two don’t matter if they succeed with the chinafrica initiative + one belt one road. US international brand rapidly declining. does not mean we’re out of time, but the window is closing
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Shared this w JD in 2018, DoD + co assessment of different scenarios where US loses in different wars - first time there’s been an instance where we lose in a scenario involving China https://www.usip.org/sites/default/files/2018-11/providing-for-the-common-defense.pdf …
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Agree, China took a huge global reputation and credibility hit this year
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Peter Zeihan makes this case well
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As mentioned in other replies I think he is wrong about both the energy piece and the conventional navy mattering. He’s right about food and our oceanic natural defenses
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China is winning on GDP, brand hasn’t stopped them from making huge inroads into Africa and Southeast Asia.
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Also bad demographics
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I think energy poor changes fast. They have Russia short term at least, plus Iran. And nuclear and solar medium term if they need it.
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