I hope I’m wrong but in order of likeliness I think the next 10-15 yrs is: 1. US war with China, China ascends. 2. No hard war but US fades into second place globally, like EU today. 3. US turns corner. We build skyscrapers in 14 days, a green grid, etc. How do we invert this?
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I agree with Mike that we have enough leverage to avoid aspects of scenario 1 and 2 but currently not enough cultural willpower or shared values to achieve scenario 3.
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agree, i don’t think china is ascending to global dominance, but i also don’t think america is building. it’s unfortunately possible *no one* ascends. we could be looking at global decline.
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I think energy poor changes fast. They have Russia short term at least, plus Iran. And nuclear and solar medium term if they need it.
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Switching dependencies doesn’t make you independent . A lot of the energy dependency doesn’t lend itself to grid electricity (vehicles, planes, ships). It won’t just be the US defaulting (BaR countries too)
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By the way, this also perfectly describes Germany in the 1930s
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yes and what happened to them? not saying china won’t lash out. i’m saying they wont ascend to global dominance.
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Plus no arable land. Also no way to reasonably start any massive military mobilization due to lack of oil.
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Food supply is huge weakness for them. I think oil is solvable between Iran and Russia
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Peter Zeihan makes this case well
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As mentioned in other replies I think he is wrong about both the energy piece and the conventional navy mattering. He’s right about food and our oceanic natural defenses
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