framed another way, coronavirus is an asymmetric risk. we can reasonably estimate the number of people who will die this year from flu. but there's currently no predicting coronavirus. its impact could be negligible, or it could be the deadliest pandemic in history.
-
-
Show this thread
-
the trouble of course is not losing our minds every time a new virus appears, because there will *always* be a new virus. but one of them, eventually, will bring us to our knees. we need to be vigilant.
Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
@nntaleb warned us of these blind spots
-
yup, most of my thinking about this kind of stuff is just a synthesis of him and bostrom
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
jeffrey epstein absolutely did not kill himself
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Another problem is the widespread use of simple outcomes to model inherently complex and multivariate phenomena - more deaths \= more risk
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Stop be so alarmist, Mike. The flu has already killed 10,000 Americans this year.pic.twitter.com/toLcOT90sU
-
exactly. we're already in full-on seasonal flu prevention mode, same primary precautions as coronovirus. for the love of god common sense tells you to stay away from people that are outwardly ill.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Not even close
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.