also fascinating that warren, committed enemy of the technology industry, has been more thoughtful about this question than yang, who pretends he represents us.
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right, not hiring new bank tellers is not the same thing as bank teller dystopia is not the same thing as imminently approaching 80 percent joblessness
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Horse drivers, elevator operators, computers at NASA, typists, shorthand writers
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agree jobs have become redundant over time. my point is we have seen no corresponding mass joblessness, no contemporary wave of automation, and no indication whatsoever of the joblessness yang is talking about.
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At a talk
@robinhanson said that there's a falloff of automated job loss because we've done the low-hanging fruits and now it's getting pretty hard to automate remaining jobs. (I vaguely remember a chart to go with this. Robin do you have it handy?) -
I'd say the rate at which jobs have been automated has long been relatively steady & slow, neither accelerating nor decelerating. Over the last 20 years, the average degree of automation of jobs has increased by ~0.1 standard deviation.
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Maybe
@antoniogm has some insights here. I remember vaguely his twitter back and forth with Benedict Evans on the topic. -
This has been a steady process for 200 years. Jobs are always being automated out of existence. How many house maids, Linotype operators or elevator attendants are there now?The question is whether something new is happening.
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