In a hits-based business what possible methods exist to isolate luck from skill in a "scientific" way?
helpful to remember people with high intelligence and little financial success (almost all professional academics) are psychologically biased in favor of luck-based worldviewshttps://twitter.com/ruima/status/1032048474462642176 …
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In the VC business I'd say knowing how to pipeline the best possible deal flow, and then knowing what to look for in founders and markets. I really don't think luck is that relevant even in the VC business
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Don’t think that’s applicable to business schools? (Which is where this working paper originates)
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Why is that?
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Isn’t this kind of ad hominem? Couldn’t this be flipped around? An academic version of Mike Solana says, “people in hits-based industries falsely attribute accomplishment to luck?”
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By luck I mean skill.
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“Being in the right place, right time” has got to be the most overused, hand waving statement to discredit anyone who has achieved something. How is that an argument?? Also, correlation doesn’t equal causation
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There is also a methodological bias - it's impossible for a study to determine something like this.
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