"Crime in SF is down 20%" ?? This is very misleading.
Homicides are up 42%. Shootings up 32%.
Majority of the "crime drop" is driven by the decrease in tourist car burglaries.
Did anyone at @FastCompany check the (publicly available) data? cc @kristindakota

(1/x)https://twitter.com/SFDAOffice/status/1313627827556687873 …
-
-
Next, let's look at the data. Here is the SF Crime Dashboard: https://bit.ly/3nrhh55 Publicly available 24/7 online. I have it bookmarked. (Obviously
). (3/x)pic.twitter.com/8oZ9AEM0Il
Show this thread -
You'll see in the bottom right the overall decrease of 23%. Check out the bars for larceny-theft. We had 26,000 car break-ins in 2019. If we are counting crimes in terms of "n" incidents, it's *very* easy to skew the data on such a large base.https://www.businessinsider.com/san-francisco-is-proposing-reimbursing-car-break-in-victims-2020-2 …
Show this thread -
Thefts accounted for ~73% of crimes in 2019. (31,128 thefts/42,935 crimes = 73%) If we had 26k car break-ins and 31k thefts, that means about 84% of thefts were car break-ins. Given our tourism has fallen to ~zilch - it's easy to understand why this number plummeted 38%.
Show this thread -
Meanwhile, some seriously concerning trends exist. Check out the increase in homicides. A homicide is "the deliberate and unlawful killing of one person by another; murder". It's up 42%! Burglaries up 43%, Vehicle theft up 30%, Arson up 45%. (6/x)pic.twitter.com/fKVKEKoA7G
Show this thread -
And, gun violence is up 32%. Our DA is quoted, "while the city has seen an increase in shootings this year, other gun-related crimes that don’t involve bullets being fired have fallen." What are gun-related crimes that don't involve bullets? (7/x)https://www.sfchronicle.com/crime/article/Troubling-trend-in-San-Francisco-32-jump-in-15585017.php …
Show this thread -
Meanwhile, we have a serious cop shortage as record numbers of cops are quitting to work elsewhere. (8/x)https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/philmatier/article/SF-police-appear-to-be-doing-their-own-defunding-15485153.php …
Show this thread -
Officers are quitting at ~2x the rate of last year. And the police force is having a very difficult time staffing to adequate levels. This article says that we only have 1,911 officers, and it's recommended that we have 2,668. We're at 70%. (9/x)https://missionlocal.org/2020/05/police-hiring-numbers-norman-yee/ …
Show this thread -
Our mayor's response to all this: defund SFPD by 17% ($120M.) (10/x)https://abc7news.com/san-francisco-budget-announcement-defund-sfpd-the-police-london-breed-press-conference/6345069/ …
Show this thread -
I have a lot to learn about the defund movement. But here is where I get concerned: Most of the shootings & homicides are in low income, racially diverse neighborhoods (e.g., Hunter's Point, Bayview, Tenderloin) What happens if the police are at 70% staffing? (11/x)
Show this thread -
Additionally, we just released 40% of our jail population in May. Add this to the fact that we aren't prosecuting a *ton* of crimes (e.g., drug dealing, outdoor cooking @ encampments, public consumption of drugs, bike chop shops). (12/x) https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-05-06/mass-incarceration-san-francisco-coronavirus …
Show this thread -
Suffice to say, I am deeply concerned about my hometown. Perhaps the goal here is just to bring down rents (they are already down 20% as people flee). Unfortunately, with the mass exodus, small businesses will suffer. The tax base will drop. Services will be cut. (13/x)
Show this thread -
Will I be impacted by any of this? Not really... But families will be. Business owners will be. People that rely on city services like busses, low-income housing, & public health. We signed our budget for now, but it was a band-aid solution.
@SupStefani saw this. (14/x)Show this thread -
She was the lone "nay" vote on the recent budget-balancing. Apparently she was eviscerated at City Hall for this. I believe she sees what's coming. We are not planning for the future. We're kicking the can down the road. (15/x)https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/supes-approve-13-6b-city-budget-in-a-10-1-vote/ …
Show this thread -
San Francisco will almost certainly never again have the economic renaissance it experienced over the past 12 years. Remote work is here to stay. The exodus is happening. Tourism will falter given our increase in crime. Empty storefronts will not help. (16/x)
Show this thread -
I think we're in for some tough years. A downward spiral. A negative flywheel. I'm spending a lot of time thinking about what I can do to help. If you have any ideas, please send them my way.


(fin)Show this thread
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
| SF native 
| On a mission to elevate basic life skills |