All good, and if we have already vaccinated >75% of people ≥12yo in the US with RNA vaccines, maybe good enough. We'd reach herd immunity, mostly due to the RNA vaccines' ~90% efficacy against all disease, i.e. R0 becomes <1.
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The 40% expected breakthrough in J&J recipients exposed to Delta is a big contrast to the 12% expected for RNA recipients. And recall J&J recipients can and should be going about their daily business the same as RNA recipients, e.g. dining in restaurantshttps://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.22.21257658v1 …
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Why not bump the protection against illness from (and tranmission of) Delta from 60% for J&J recipients to ~90% like the RNA recipients have? This can be easily accomplished with a RNA booster for existing J&J recipients.
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On top of that, increasing protection against disease will reduce the probability of getting hospitalized (and dying, for the unfortunate) further. It might make a small difference to the numbers, but a big difference to individuals.
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All it would take is a recommendation from the CDC that J&J recipients be allowed to receive boosters. If CDC wants to be cautious, they can suggest that doctors consider prescribing a booster on a case-by-case basis. It would then be allowable off-label use of an approved drug.
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Thus with a glut of soon-to-expire RNA doses, no lines at vaccination locations, Delta surging, J&J not fully protected against disease, and overwhelming evidence for safety and efficacy of RNA boosters, allowing J&J recipients a RNA booster is a no-brainer.
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In conclusion, CDC issuing guidance allowing RNA boosters for J&J recipients would be a proper application of the principle of "identifying the worst-case scenario using the most up-to-date science and recommending easy things that can mitigate that".
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Old thread, but it seems to have aged well. A bit sad, actually, that my recommendations are applicable now, as it means we've wasted 3 months. However it's still not too late, if CDC now acts quickly.
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We've now wasted 4 months and most of the Delta wave just to find out that J&J breakthrough vs Delta death is 20%, several times worse than Modernahttps://twitter.com/michaelzlin/status/1450319601275793409 …
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What happened while the CDC held onto the fiction that
#JnJers were fully immunized and thereby by definition the same as Modernates and Pfizerites See death curves by vaccine typehttps://twitter.com/redouad/status/1463175757740523525?t=yyqSPnUzl8jVQSc3fAwKHg&s=19 …
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End of conversation
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Those of us who received
@JNJGlobalHealth vaccine need guidance from@CDCgov now, please!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Molecular engineering for voltage, viruses, and SARSCoV2. Fan of facts.
