VACCINES can work!
Another #COVID19 phase 3 vaccine trial reports awesome results. This time, an estimated 94% efficacy
95 COVID19 detected: only 5! in the vaccine group and 90 in the placebo
But like Pfizer results - need to take w caution... WHY?
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https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/modernas-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-meets-its-primary-efficacy …
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So, w these early efficacy results, we may be measuring the effects of an impressive front line army that spins up in response to the vaccine - but then we should be careful not to assume the same efficacy persists to hold that line after most of the troops disappear! 8/
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That all said - what these two vaccines show is they hit the nail on the head to find the right protein to immunize against! Only time and careful follow up will tell how much the >90% efficacy of the two vaccines holds after the early vaccine responses fade away. 9/
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This is btw generally why we must monitor durability of vaccine responses over time. And why we have to always be careful to interpret efficacy within the parameters of the data we have (here - early months post vaccine) Also - we don’t know about transmission blocking... 10/
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To learn about the actual benefits long term of the vaccine reaponse - it will take continued post market analysis. The controls will likely get the vaccine - so a new type of vaccine study that is not as well controlled will ensue to measure longer term effects. 11/
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Also - I’m not speaking in black and white terms here. Either way, immunity will likely persist. It’s not binary. B and T cells are produced At population level, we must wait to see if 94% efficacy to fully block symptomatic disease becomes 90% or if it becomes 50%, or 30% 12/
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And even if it becomes 50% to stop total symptomatic disease, it could remain 90% to stop severe disease. This, like testing and everything else is simply NOT a binary issue and also is NOT a simple issue meant for describing over Twitter.... 13/
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End of conversation
New conversation -
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If protection is indeed short lived, should our strategy be to first vaccinate "potential" super-spreaders? Basically nodes whose immunity would break several transmission chains e.g., Clergies, nurses, resident doctors, nursing home staff, front facing grocery employees?
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Question, are they calculating an efficacy rate based on a percentage of the population receiving the vaccine? Its widely known Vac's don't work as well on the older and rely heavily on high % of pop receiving.
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Pfizer also trialled over 65s and concluded 94% protection vs 95 with the complete group.
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New conversation -
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How often would the vaccine need to be repeated to get the pandemic under control and do we have the capacity for making enough doses for repeat vaccinations?
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