saying it's 50/50 is, as a rule, lazy thinking if there are two options here--and i agree with those two--the odds that they would be split even approximately evenly would be quite low, esp long term https://twitter.com/ricardo_rudd/status/1265347186306371585 …
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Replying to @michaelmalice
Would you buy “within a standard deviation of 50/50 but I haven’t the capacity to know the precise number, which would vary depending on time and place, and so for convenience I act as though the split is 50/50?”
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