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When I start telling people my opinions about things like this they back away and unfollow me. :-}
Are you referring to the RAND healthcare study? Note, by the way, the comments about changing demographics other commenters have made, which likely invalidate my point (b).
I don't think changes in the birth rate could cause that graph to look anything like the graph that people _want_ to exist, in which modern medicine is dramatically better than 100-years-ago medicine.
Modern medicine _is_ a lot better, if in no other way than essentially wiping out infectious diseases (which is enormous). Infant mortality statistics is another huge win. Both are only partially medical, also due to, e.g., better plumbing etc.
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