1/ Whenever there is a market fad/phenomena with low or no barriers and a flood of entrants—the best strategy is often: Be the arms dealer.
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2/ The froyo craze: Pinkberry, RedMango, YogurtLand, 16Handles...you know who won? United Technologies which owns Taylor:pic.twitter.com/cTSMdBX9K0
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Josh Wolfe Retweeted Eliot Brown
3/ Today’s fad? And..things that don’t happen at a market a bottom: scooter wars. Someone may make money But this is just silly
#nottom I mean:https://twitter.com/eliotwb/status/980847506182385664?s=21 …Josh Wolfe added,
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Replying to @wolfejosh
michael_nielsen Retweeted Andrej Karpathy
I really, really like the scooters, and have been talking about them to everyone. Not because I give a shit about the market, either (I don't, that's not what I do). Because I really like the scooter. I'm not the only one:https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/980552106187739136 …
michael_nielsen added,
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Replying to @michael_nielsen
No debate about value to consumers. Same for yogurt. It’s delicious. Just would prefer to be high probability agnostic arms dealer than having to raise and spend on marketing and race for share A product is not a biz is not an investment.
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Replying to @wolfejosh
Sure. I'm disputing the notion this is necessarily a fad. It may be - most things are - but that's calling it early. As to what makes good investment strategy here, I haven't thought about it, you may be right. No idea if a company can build a moat.
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Replying to @michael_nielsen
Agree. I don’t mean “fad” as transient phenomena like pet rock or fidget spinner or even Pokémon go—but as phenomena/craze. Those yogurt chains persist (thankfully, yum!) But competition has cornered growth or hurt economics.
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Replying to @wolfejosh
Curious: why do you think the manufacturers will hold the power, rather than the owner of the brand users connect to? In airline industry, seems to be manufacturers. But in ride share, it's the brand users connect to. [cont]
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Replying to @michael_nielsen
Truly no idea. A lot of competition burns a lot of cash. Bird was first, someone else can enter with twist or partnership or better service. Very hard to predict anything beyond no barriers, lots of competition.
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The same argument applies to the manufacturers. And so far as I can see they are building a relatively simple product out of mostly commodity parts, with little ability to build a brand or network of users. Not clear they have a lot of protection from competition.
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