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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. Josh Wolfe‏Verified account @wolfejosh 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      1/ Whenever there is a market fad/phenomena with low or no barriers and a flood of entrants—the best strategy is often: Be the arms dealer.

      8 replies 95 retweets 407 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Josh Wolfe‏Verified account @wolfejosh 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      2/ The froyo craze: Pinkberry, RedMango, YogurtLand, 16Handles...you know who won? United Technologies which owns Taylor:pic.twitter.com/cTSMdBX9K0

      3 replies 8 retweets 103 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Josh Wolfe‏Verified account @wolfejosh 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Josh Wolfe Retweeted Eliot Brown

      3/ Today’s fad? And..things that don’t happen at a market a bottom: scooter wars. Someone may make money But this is just silly #nottom I mean:https://twitter.com/eliotwb/status/980847506182385664?s=21 …

      Josh Wolfe added,

      Eliot BrownVerified account @eliotwb
      Scooters descended upon SF en masse 10 days ago. This is what VC herd mentality looks like. VCs fund scooter competitors, who engage in a land grab https://twitter.com/mgsiegler/status/980846271702249472 …
      3 replies 3 retweets 34 likes
      Show this thread
    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wolfejosh

      michael_nielsen Retweeted Andrej Karpathy

      I really, really like the scooters, and have been talking about them to everyone. Not because I give a shit about the market, either (I don't, that's not what I do). Because I really like the scooter. I'm not the only one:https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/980552106187739136 …

      michael_nielsen added,

      Andrej KarpathyVerified account @karpathy
      Got a chance to try out a Bird (https://www.inc.com/will-yakowicz/the-bird-electric-scooter-phenomenon.html …) this morning and it is THE BEST. Waiting for someone to photoshop it as the next stage into one of those "evolution of man" pictures.
      2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. Josh Wolfe‏Verified account @wolfejosh 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      No debate about value to consumers. Same for yogurt. It’s delicious. Just would prefer to be high probability agnostic arms dealer than having to raise and spend on marketing and race for share A product is not a biz is not an investment.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wolfejosh

      Sure. I'm disputing the notion this is necessarily a fad. It may be - most things are - but that's calling it early. As to what makes good investment strategy here, I haven't thought about it, you may be right. No idea if a company can build a moat.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Josh Wolfe‏Verified account @wolfejosh 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      Agree. I don’t mean “fad” as transient phenomena like pet rock or fidget spinner or even Pokémon go—but as phenomena/craze. Those yogurt chains persist (thankfully, yum!) But competition has cornered growth or hurt economics.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 2 Apr 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wolfejosh

      Curious: why do you think the manufacturers will hold the power, rather than the owner of the brand users connect to? In airline industry, seems to be manufacturers. But in ride share, it's the brand users connect to. [cont]

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 2 Apr 2018
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @wolfejosh

      I've not thought deeply enough to know which side scooters will come down on. Nor do I understand all that well the airline / ride share examples, though clearly there is an ease-of-entry issue.

      9:41 PM - 2 Apr 2018
      • 1 Like
      • Josh Wolfe
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        1. Kevin Kwok‏ @kevinakwok 2 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @michael_nielsen @wolfejosh

          Fwiw don't think manufacturers will hold power but they will make lots of money. Question of how it plays out is question of whether space is long term viable and if so which axes of competition are the important ones. Happy to discuss both longer if interested--but neither has

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        2. Kevin Kwok‏ @kevinakwok 2 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @kevinakwok @michael_nielsen @wolfejosh

          Consensus formed on it yet. Though def theories

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
          3. End of conversation
        1. Blake Maczka‏ @BlakeMaczka 3 Apr 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @michael_nielsen @wolfejosh

          You think Uber/Lyft have power compared to Toyota/GM?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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