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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15 Feb 2018
    • Report Tweet

    What do our (supposed) intellectual elite know about human progress? Repost: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=165938533888688&id=100014176268390 … Intro excerpted belowpic.twitter.com/DRaMaYqnNy

    10:27 PM - 15 Feb 2018
    • 59 Retweets
    • 185 Likes
    • Felix Hartmann Bill Seitz Pero Charlie El. Awbery a.k.a. Rin’dzin Pamo Abel Molina Josh Mize Uncarved Bitmap Jules Pitt Diana S. Fleischman
    16 replies 59 retweets 185 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15 Feb 2018
        • Report Tweet

        7 of 8 when I first took it, IIRC (it was late 2016). I just retook it and got 8/8.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. NG‏ @902_PM 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen @WottonLang

        So off the top of your head, you knew the percentage of under one year olds vaccinated against measles +- 10%, global electricity availability +- 10% and the global rate of primary school attendance by girls +- 10%? Do you work in public health?

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Feb 2018
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        . @deftly_admiral points out that the statistics of the responses have changed since I wrote this (14 months ago), and are now a little bit better than random. Still very unimpressive, but would at least outperform a random number generator.

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
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      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Feb 2018
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        A fair number of people seem to take this as personally impugning them if they get a low score. But with just 8 questions & s'times fine-grained categories, it's a mistake to read too much into an individual result (high or low). The overall statistics, OTOH, do seem interesting

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      2. Patrick N‏ @patrick_exo 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen @mhoye

        The charts aren't created or used like that, though. They aggregate giant winners with modest losers, and carefully pick timeframes to emphasize growth. They ignore decadal and large subgroup reversals. They shout down dissent, and say that we have no problems/everything is fine.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @patrick_exo @mhoye

        Only a fool would use these kinds of statistics to argue that everything is fine and we have no problems. But it would also be foolish to ignore these statistics, and not to try to understand what's going on.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      2.  🦉Great and unmatched Wisdomination  🦉‏ @Supreme_Owl_FTW 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen

        The fortune of their guild depends on being needed, which in turn depends on a sense of crisis and enlightened rescue. Only, there's no crisis, and the "philosopher kings" are self-serving impostors who regularly make things worse.

        1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @Supreme_Owl_FTW

        Just because some of those numbers are better than people expect doesn't mean there aren't real crises. Eg the numbers on extreme poverty have gotten a lot better, and that should be celebrated, but at the same time that level (about $2/day) is a very low bar.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
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      2. Adam J Calhoun‏Verified account @neuroecology 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen

        3/8 (although some multiple choice were 'close') I guess don't listen to anything I have to say about global development ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Feb 2018
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        Replying to @neuroecology

        Heh. As I say elsewhere in thread, the number of questions is so small and the categories fine-grained enough that I'm not sure n=1 results have much meaning (could just be good or bad luck). Collectively, though, I think the stats are interesting.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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