The use of spaced repetition memory systems has changed my life over the past couple of years. Here's a few things I've found helpful:
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I needed to do some extrapolation of long-term failure rates (since I don't have data, for the obvious reason), so don't take the number too seriously. It was a check to see that the number was in the right ballpark.
Basically, the problem with long-term failure rates is that it seems likely to me that Ebbinghaus/Leitner/etc type decay models get pretty wonky in the tail. If I review after 2 years, get a Q right, does that mean I shouldn't see the Q again for 5 years? Etc.
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Probably shouldn't. The Mnemosyne dataset goes back over a decade at this point, and multi-year followups have been done, so I figure any serious misfit would be noticed by now. And if you aren't naturally exposed to any recall over decades, how important really could it be?
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You have vastly more confidence than I in what questions are carefully studied & answered. As to the natural exposure question, part of the point (for me) is to use the ideas as creative stimulus, so having access to infrequently used ideas is a +.
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