1910: “Planes are getting much better. I worry they’ll accidentally go into orbit” Aircraft people: “well, that might be possible one day, but not with canvas & props” 2017: “AI is getting much better. I worry it might accidentally turn into general AI” AI people: “well…
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Replying to @benedictevans
I believe recent analyses show very little agreement amongst researchers on this topic.
@Miles_Brundage is that right? What's the best study to look at re researchers expectations on AI threats?2 replies 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @jeremyphoward @benedictevans
Main survey described here https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 Lots more results herehttps://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/ …
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there are others but generally smaller and more biased/problematic in various ways (not that this one's perfect, but it's more of a serious effort than most such surveys)
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Replying to @Miles_Brundage @benedictevans
Thanks so much for sharing. On the whole it seems to support my contention that there's little agreement in the research community. E.g. this chart:pic.twitter.com/w4bxIyRTqu
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Interesting that it's 21% of NIPS/ICML 2015 authors. That's actually not a terrible sample of what I'd consider the professional ML/AI community. Hard to argue for anything other than, as you say, "there's little agreement in the research community".
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And importantly, per paper, they checked that at least based on readily available info, survey responders not much different from non-responders. This was a prob with other surveys.
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Yeah also I recall a similar survey but done at AAAI, which is not where people at the leading edge of the field tend to go nowadays. NIPS/ICLR is exactly the right group to get
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It was NIPS/ICML, not NIPS/ICLR.
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Replying to @michael_nielsen @jeremyphoward and
(Not that I think this changes your conclusion, of course!)
4:18 PM - 26 Dec 2017
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