Considering this graph of mean life expectancy: not much. In particular, mean world life expectancy is rising much faster than max.pic.twitter.com/O59vmTtBRf
Rising by one year per decade! Wonder how much of that is just stochastic variation due to increased population?https://twitter.com/MaxCRoser/status/853826203811274752 …
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especially also an increased population for which the age is reliably known. But otherwise the linked blog has some more info.
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I thought this was fascinating too: http://www.grg.org/SC/SCindex.html , especially the fact that 42 of 43 living supercentenarians are women!
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good q -- you could look at a country w/ stable or shrinking population and low/no immigration like Japan to control for this.
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i guess prob w/ my idea is we care about flat growth rate when people were *born* not when they die, so need to wait another ~50 yrs for jp
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I'd guess very little! On simplest static model, lifespans drawn unif from [0,1]; expected max of N indep lifespans is 1-1/(N+1).
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Since N in billions, static model suggests max lifespans already within seconds of max possible, if such a max were fixed!
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I've often thought "how often does the world's oldest person die" would make a good interview question re stats + guesstimation.
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