Great blog post from @michael_nielsen responding to mine, on the alleged tension between rationality and innovation: http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/is-there-a-tension-between-creativity-and-accuracy/ …
-
Yup. But I think
@michael_nielsen believes that, bc of our psychology, calibrated ppl wouldn't be motivated to do high-EV, low-prob things
Yes. Empirically, a lot of the people I see do high-EV, low-probability things (inc. a lot of people who succeed) aren't well calibrated.
-
-
Actually, the observation is stronger than that: beyond some level of competence, I believe that in scientists more creativity seems
-
(weakly) anti-correlated with the kind of calibration I think Julia is talking about. Based on anecdotal personal observation of scientists
-
Note also that this is against a pretty high baseline. (For most - there are even some exceptions to that, eg, Kary Mullis, apparently.)
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
Choosing high-EV stuff is good-calibration sign, right? You say they're badly calibrated b/c of unrelated evidence, & do high-EV in spite of
-
I'm just talking about examples like that in my post. Feynman & Weber fooling themselves into doing stuff or...
End of conversation
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.