Benabou & Tirole on costs & benefits of motivated beliefs & reasoning: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.30.3.141 …
My response to @juliagalef's thoughtful blog post about tension between creativity and reducing cognitive error: http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/is-there-a-tension-between-creativity-and-accuracy/ … …https://twitter.com/juliagalef/status/850437751879081984 …
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Lovely article by Freeman Dyson on "The Case for Blunders":http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2014/03/06/darwin-einstein-case-for-blunders/?pagination=false …
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Ooh like both of these. One thing I'd add is that the amount of cognitive load to look at each deviation from group view also affects this
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I'm not quite sure what you mean, Kevin?
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1) Thanks for the reply,
@michael_nielsen! It seems one source of our disagreement is just what your initial claim meant: -
2) "I think you’re over-rating accuracy / truth as a primary goal" to me implies that making *society in general* more accurate would be
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Isn't the point that we want (some) scientists to pursue high variance paths: higher risk of being wildly wrong, but occasional breakthrus?
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Yes, q is just, do we need those scientists to be self-deceived about the variance of their path? (And do funders need to be self-deceived?)
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I think much is truth here. I greatly value precision/accuracy, but don't require it prematurely when chasing down new idea.
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The problems of overconfidence in what we think we know are totally different from case when you think you see something others don't.
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