Sure. But I think there's a tension, too, between behaviours which maximize accuracy & which maximize creativity. Can't always have both.
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Huh maybe we're just talking about different things: "innovation" is one project and "evaluation" is another, and I'm thinking of the latter
I'm not sure. I think the examples you give, perhaps AI risk especially, are ones where we're still very ignorant.
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And I claim there are many impactful decisions made on the basis of similarly inaccurate models
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Oh, I agree. I wasn't terribly clear. What I mean is that I see ....
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As a result, today's experts are in a situation somewhat similar to Feynman. On AI more broadly, I think there's a lot of this among experts
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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The *right* answer is very hard to identify, but some answers are better than others. e.g. I think "100% chance no AGI, ever" is kinda dumb
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Agree with this too.
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