What is your favorite example where an impact evaluation has overturned a strongly held prior belief?
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Replying to @DaveEvansPhD
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@tukopamoja funniest/saddest example I know of: early 2000s Gates Foundation support of small schools.1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes -
Replying to @albrgr
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@tukopamoja apparently initially based on fact that small schools overrep'd on "top" lists, which is bc of noise: http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09/the-small-schools-myth.html …1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @albrgr
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@tukopamoja when this is pointed out and initial results are disappointing, Gates pivots away from the small schools strategy.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @albrgr
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@tukopamoja but! fast forward to 2014, RCT in NYC that Gates had commissioned on small schools comes back:http://www.mdrc.org/publication/headed-college …1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @albrgr
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@tukopamoja turns out that small schools increase high school graduation and college attendance! Oops.3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @albrgr @tukopamoja
(After election, many journos criticised 538 etc as being "wrong". But the journos were not even wrong..& didn't notice)
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @michael_nielsen
strongly agree with you on this, and of course 538 was much more right than most...
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
I'm sympathetic even to, e.g., Sam Wang (though less so). His clarity of thought meant he may learn something. Most journos haven't
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