Is there a name for the cognitive bias that makes us think any probability that is not exactly 0.5 should be treated as either 0.0 or 1.0?
I've talked this over with people several times in the past 11 days, & looked around online. Nothing obvious came up.
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This election wld be an excellent basis for a class on cognitive biases. You could cover a new one each lecture, room to spare
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it's fun—I am sure you can elicit this in the lab, but it is a mixture of risk aversion and risk tolerance.
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Presumably it's related to some System-One heuristics. Just wondering if it had an official designation.
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@michael_nielsen@seanmcarroll I call it the coin-flip bias. There is more to randomness and probability distributions than coin-flips (1) -
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@michael_nielsen@seanmcarroll And more to statistics than just probability https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4360088/ … (see "inverse probability") (2) - 1 more reply
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I was literally just thinking about this.
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