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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

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michaelnielsen.org
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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      (Also: I’d like to better understand the environmental impact of batteries and solar. Lithium ion batteries seem to be pretty nasty stuff.)

      8 replies 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      In any case: there are incredibly strong forces driving renewable growth.

      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      At the moment, 6 of the world’s 10 largest companies (by revenue) are oil and gas companies. 2 are car companies, still mostly fossil fuels. And 1 is an electricity company, almost certainly mostly fossil fuels.pic.twitter.com/7pEoYIpaBD

      3 proslijeđena tweeta 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      My guess - this is just speculation - in 30-40 years time many of those fossil fuel companies will have been replaced on that list by either renewable energy or (maybe) nuclear companies. Or they themselves will have largely switched. Volkswagen is certainly in that mix.

      1 proslijeđeni tweet 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      Incidentally, when I talk to tech folks they sometimes tell me climate/energy is a niche, interesting but obviously much less important than tech. See all the tech companies on that list above? Neither do I.

      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 27 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      It’s true that by market cap tech is currently larger. But energy is a multi-trillion dollar industry. And the growth of renewables suggests a major transition in energy is near.

      1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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    7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      (Just to be clear: I'm not saying tech isn't incredibly important! Just that there's a myopia on the part of some tech people I've chatted with about this. There's a very large world beyond technology.)

      6 replies 1 proslijeđeni tweet 9 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      2. But hang on, aren’t capitalism and growth models the problem? Why are you talking about all this growth? Isn’t it a bad thing?

      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      This argument basically says climate change is just a symptom of a much more unhealthy pattern: growth models. Capitalism produces growth produces more human ability to change the world. And that means goof-ups produce more damage to the world.

      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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    10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument. Certainly, and just as a for instance, battery waste really is something I worry about, if we’re all of a sudden using 100x the scale of batteries.

      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
      • Prijavi Tweet

      And you do see this pattern over & over. Subprime mortgage derivatives seem, in principle, a great idea - pooling risk to provide capital to people who otherwise can’t afford homes. Except they were systematically mispriced, resulting...

      13:25 - 29. pro 2019.
      • 13 oznaka „sviđa mi se”
      • Vadim Vorobyov Devon 🇧🇪 in Brussels! Balaji Yellavalli Bill Seitz 🔥ChongLi🔥 Yog Mehta Lazy Bot Josh Herritz Thuongvu
      1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
        1. Novi razgovor
        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          ... not just in the evaporation of trillions of dollars during the financial crisis, but huge followon effects that have massively changed the world.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Sometimes we find technological solutions to these problems. The original refrigerators used ammonia as a coolant. This sometimes leaked, killing people. Solution! Use CFCs instead. Except that damaged the ozone layer. Solution! Use HCFCs instead. And so on.

          1 proslijeđeni tweet 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Maybe tomorrow some magic genie will produce a way of doing scalable direct air carbon capture at 10 cents per tonne of CO2. If so, we can be back down to pre-industrial CO2 levels in a flash, if we choose.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The pessimistic view is that we keep playing with fire, & sometimes we get lucky. But eventually humanity will damage ourselves in a way that makes the financial crisis look like a rounding error. Maybe climate is it. But even if not...

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          ... capitalism & growth models have this as an inevitable side effect. They’re the real culprits.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The trouble with this point of view is that the alternatives seem far worse. Yes, you can go for a low-growth or communist model. I’m sure the Amish CO2 emissions are much lower than middle America. North Korea’s are 1.6 t / yr, one tenth of the US per capita, one third of global

          1 proslijeđeni tweet 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          But I don’t want to live in North Korea, & I suspect most of the “down with capitalism” crowd don’t either.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          (Of course, they don’t think of it that way. But whenever I’ve dug down into concrete plans, they seem poorly thought through, relying on wishful thinking and “this time will be different”.)

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Now, the optimistic point of view here - the opportunity! - is to try to find smart and wise alternatives that are much better than capitalism’s current incarnation. That really is an exciting opportunity.

          2 proslijeđena tweeta 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        11. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          That’s one reason I’m enthused by charter cities. It’s why I’m enthused by the ideas of Elinor Ostrom. And by the liberal radicalism (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3243656 … ) of @VitalikButerin @zhitzig @glenweyl, a clever way of funding public goods and attacking collective action problems

          8 proslijeđenih tweetova 56 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        12. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          I don’t mean to say I think liberal radicalism etc are likely to solve climate change! I just mean: this kind of thinking & work seems tremendously important, & worth supporting more experimentation in this direction. Reinventing capitalism will sound ludicrous until its not.

          1 proslijeđeni tweet 16 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        13. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          (The more conservative approach - probably more likely to work, in this context - is to make a small modification capitalism by introducing something like a carbon tax. I may say more about that later, but I’ll leave it aside for now.)

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        14. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          3. What about nuclear? I haven’t said much about nuclear (fission). That’s because, while in principle it ought to be an enormous help, there’s a set of problems with it that I just don’t know much about how to solve.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        15. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Between 1950 and the 1980s nuclear grew rapidly, from 0 GW to more than 300 GW of installed capacity. And then it levelled off, in the aftermath of Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. It’s only 400 GW today, and provides about 10% of world electricity.

          1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 8 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        16. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The problems are interlocking: political unpopularity, security (country A doesn’t want country B to use nuclear power, because it can be used for weapons), cost (in part due to regulations, politics, & security), waste, and more.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        17. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Worse, there’s a cadre of people who like to shout loudly “nuclear is the only possible answer, and if you don’t think so you’re an idiot” (or the equivalent). These are not the people you want on your side in a battle for hearts and minds.

          2 proslijeđena tweeta 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        18. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          I don’t know how to solve the problems above. I believe, however, that they genuinely _are_ soluble, and what’s needed is the right kind of marketing and political and entrepreneurial geniuses (genii?).

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        19. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Actually, that's a little silly to say ("genius" can be such a discouraging word!) But: hard work and imagination may well go a long way. I'd like to learn more about the best ideas people have here! How to solve the unpopularity? Regulatory? Security? And so on!

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 7 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        20. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          4. A bit of a time out. Looking back at the above, it’s been a blizzard of facts and figures and charts.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 3 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        21. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          What I really want (& I think many other people want) is a compelling overall narrative arc. And I don’t quite see that. I know a lot of people are prescribing narrative arcs for climate (“X is the answer!”) But I must admit I haven't been very compelled by what I've seen.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        22. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Anyways, failing an overall solution, I believe what you need to do is bite off sizeable chunks of the problem, build up your understanding. That’s what I’ve been trying to do in this thread, at least for myself!

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 10 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        23. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          4. Negative emissions technologies are essential CO2 likely (ordinarily) takes centuries to be removed from the atmosphere. Even if we went to zero emissions tomorrow, it’d keep getting warmer due to climate inertia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_inertia …

          1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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        24. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          My opinion is that we need inexpensive (or even profit-turning) scalable NETs, fast. Here’s a really great report surveying NETs: https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259/negative-emissions-technologies-and-reliable-sequestration-a-research-agenda … Click on “download pdf”, not “pay $100+ dollars”, and enjoy the amusing survey.pic.twitter.com/bYblqpnf0x

          1 reply 1 proslijeđeni tweet 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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        25. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Good news: there’s a lot of them, many seem quite promising. If we can do scalable NET at $10 per tonne, then we can get to net zero emissions at about the same price as for the Clean Air Act (& quickly reduce it). http://cognitivemedium.com/dac-notes pic.twitter.com/1HPHeVb9Qy

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        26. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          The bad news: we don’t have cheap, scalable NETs :-) I do think this is a wonderful research opportunity, though, and my impression is that it’s very under-invested in.

          0 proslijeđenih tweetova 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        27. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          5. Final thoughts: I’m repeatedly struck by the incredible size of the opportunity here. We’re going to make much better institutions, discover many amazing things, & create incredible companies.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 13 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        28. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          I know some people don’t like the last, but think it’s good when groups of people profit from providing an enormous social good, like scalable clean energy, or carbon removal. That's capitalism operating as it should, to serve the social good. I hope it does here.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 20 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        29. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          Of course, the flip side: there’s damage already being done, and likely to be incredible damage done.

          1 reply 0 proslijeđenih tweetova 6 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        30. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. pro 2019.
          • Prijavi Tweet

          We don’t yet have institutions or norms that enable us to deal with problems where inaction over the next few decades may cause much of an ice sheet to melt a century or two from now. I hope we can develop such institutions and norms!

          5 replies 1 proslijeđeni tweet 14 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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        31. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29. sij
          • Prijavi Tweet

          michael_nielsen je proslijedio/a tweet korisnika/ceErika Reinhardt

          Postscript: a thoughtful thread and essay on this question:https://twitter.com/embrein/status/1222574151572979712 …

          michael_nielsen je dodan/na,

          Erika Reinhardt @embrein
          We all want to help address the climate crisis. But it’s such a complex issue that it can be hard to distinguish between data-backed improvements and feel-good distractions. So here's your data-backed guide: http://erikareinhardt.com/personal-climate-action …
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