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michael_nielsen's profile
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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
    • Report Tweet

    michael_nielsen Retweeted michael_nielsen

    A couple of weeks ago I asked on Twitter what people felt they, individually (not others!), should do about climate change. There were many thoughtful replies:https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1204129299369877504 …

    michael_nielsen added,

    michael_nielsen @michael_nielsen
    Curious: what do you think you, personally (not others!), should do about climate change? How do you feel about your own answer - does it seem satisfactory to you, or unsatisfactory?
    Show this thread
    1:12 PM - 29 Dec 2019
    • 28 Retweets
    • 151 Likes
    • Stefan Kunz MEMO M̸e̵h̶m̸e̸t̶ ̴S̴e̷l̴i̷m̸ ̵A̸k̶t̴e̷n̶ David Soergel Alex Beal 🆎 Michael Zhang Russell Gorddard Carnun Marcus-Page Timothy Duignan M Grrl
    7 replies 28 retweets 151 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet

        I don't yet have an answer to this question which I'm personally satisfied with. But here's a few observations.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        Show this thread
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        (Thoughtful comments welcome, but please read through before replying, since some ideas need to be unpacked over multiple tweets! I know: shock, some ideas require more than 280 characters!)

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        Show this thread
      4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        1. Renewable energy is growing like absolute gangbusters

        2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
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      5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        According to BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, in 2018 renewable electricity grew 14.5%. For comparison, CO2 emissions from energy use (the vast majority of CO2 emissions) grew just 2.0% https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf …pic.twitter.com/4vFInZ2YM1

        1 reply 1 retweet 2 likes
        Show this thread
      6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Not to belabour the obvious, but that’s a humungous difference! Renewable energy is expanding at an incredible rate. But in terms of overall energy use, it’s still just a tiny, tiny fraction. The tiny (top) sliver of orange here is renewables.pic.twitter.com/XMCrMxJYNW

        3 replies 6 retweets 23 likes
        Show this thread
      7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        It’s tempting to look at that sliver & feel pessimistic. On the other hand, ask Blockbuster how that tiny (but rapidly growing) upstart Netflix did. Compound growth is an incredibly strong force. That’s especially true when many govts are strongly supporting renewables

        1 reply 2 retweets 21 likes
        Show this thread
      8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        This growth is being supported by many trends. One is the amazing drop of solar prices (Swanson’s Law): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law …. More than a factor 200 over 40 years, in constant dollars.pic.twitter.com/P2AMz91dQl

        1 reply 4 retweets 6 likes
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      9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Incidentally, this is a fun paper about _why_ prices have dropped so rapidly. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/56afb881e321406be6160228/t/5bff10822b6a2884d7267f17/1543442566890/Evaluating+the+causes+of+cost+reduction+in+photovoltaic+modules …pic.twitter.com/zetlwDSxYN

        2 replies 19 retweets 85 likes
        Show this thread
      10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Battery prices show a similarly incredible drop. They’re down by a factor 7 since 2010, from $1,100/kWh in 2010, to $156/kWh in 2019:https://www.utilitydive.com/news/battery-prices-fall-nearly-50-in-3-years-spurring-more-electrification-b/568363/ …

        1 reply 16 retweets 44 likes
        Show this thread
      11. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Something I don’t understand are the price points at which solar + battery ought to take over most of the electricity system. I don’t think we can be terribly far from that point - 10 years? I don’t have a good model, nor of how centralized it will be.

        6 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
        Show this thread
      12. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        (Also: I’d like to better understand the environmental impact of batteries and solar. Lithium ion batteries seem to be pretty nasty stuff.)

        8 replies 0 retweets 20 likes
        Show this thread
      13. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        In any case: there are incredibly strong forces driving renewable growth.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      14. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        At the moment, 6 of the world’s 10 largest companies (by revenue) are oil and gas companies. 2 are car companies, still mostly fossil fuels. And 1 is an electricity company, almost certainly mostly fossil fuels.pic.twitter.com/7pEoYIpaBD

        2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      15. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        My guess - this is just speculation - in 30-40 years time many of those fossil fuel companies will have been replaced on that list by either renewable energy or (maybe) nuclear companies. Or they themselves will have largely switched. Volkswagen is certainly in that mix.

        3 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
        Show this thread
      16. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Incidentally, when I talk to tech folks they sometimes tell me climate/energy is a niche, interesting but obviously much less important than tech. See all the tech companies on that list above? Neither do I.

        1 reply 0 retweets 27 likes
        Show this thread
      17. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        It’s true that by market cap tech is currently larger. But energy is a multi-trillion dollar industry. And the growth of renewables suggests a major transition in energy is near.

        1 reply 1 retweet 22 likes
        Show this thread
      18. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        (Just to be clear: I'm not saying tech isn't incredibly important! Just that there's a myopia on the part of some tech people I've chatted with about this. There's a very large world beyond technology.)

        6 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
        Show this thread
      19. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        2. But hang on, aren’t capitalism and growth models the problem? Why are you talking about all this growth? Isn’t it a bad thing?

        1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
        Show this thread
      20. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        This argument basically says climate change is just a symptom of a much more unhealthy pattern: growth models. Capitalism produces growth produces more human ability to change the world. And that means goof-ups produce more damage to the world.

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      21. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        I’m somewhat sympathetic to this argument. Certainly, and just as a for instance, battery waste really is something I worry about, if we’re all of a sudden using 100x the scale of batteries.

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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      22. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        And you do see this pattern over & over. Subprime mortgage derivatives seem, in principle, a great idea - pooling risk to provide capital to people who otherwise can’t afford homes. Except they were systematically mispriced, resulting...

        1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      23. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        ... not just in the evaporation of trillions of dollars during the financial crisis, but huge followon effects that have massively changed the world.

        1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        Show this thread
      24. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Sometimes we find technological solutions to these problems. The original refrigerators used ammonia as a coolant. This sometimes leaked, killing people. Solution! Use CFCs instead. Except that damaged the ozone layer. Solution! Use HCFCs instead. And so on.

        2 replies 1 retweet 17 likes
        Show this thread
      25. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Maybe tomorrow some magic genie will produce a way of doing scalable direct air carbon capture at 10 cents per tonne of CO2. If so, we can be back down to pre-industrial CO2 levels in a flash, if we choose.

        1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
        Show this thread
      26. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        The pessimistic view is that we keep playing with fire, & sometimes we get lucky. But eventually humanity will damage ourselves in a way that makes the financial crisis look like a rounding error. Maybe climate is it. But even if not...

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
        Show this thread
      27. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        ... capitalism & growth models have this as an inevitable side effect. They’re the real culprits.

        3 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      28. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        The trouble with this point of view is that the alternatives seem far worse. Yes, you can go for a low-growth or communist model. I’m sure the Amish CO2 emissions are much lower than middle America. North Korea’s are 1.6 t / yr, one tenth of the US per capita, one third of global

        2 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
        Show this thread
      29. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        But I don’t want to live in North Korea, & I suspect most of the “down with capitalism” crowd don’t either.

        2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
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      30. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        (Of course, they don’t think of it that way. But whenever I’ve dug down into concrete plans, they seem poorly thought through, relying on wishful thinking and “this time will be different”.)

        1 reply 0 retweets 14 likes
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      31. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 29 Dec 2019
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        Now, the optimistic point of view here - the opportunity! - is to try to find smart and wise alternatives that are much better than capitalism’s current incarnation. That really is an exciting opportunity.

        3 replies 2 retweets 15 likes
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      32. 21 more replies

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