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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16h16 hours ago
      • Report Tweet

      I'm not wild about gotcha journalism. But geez I'd love to ask some of the people writing about climate some basic questions. What are total CO2 emissions per year? What percentage is due to the US? To China? To coal? To power generation?

      19 replies 14 retweets 181 likes
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16h16 hours ago
      • Report Tweet

      How does the impact of methane compare to CO2? How long does CO2 last in the atmosphere (& how do we know)? Etc. When reading I often have the sneaking suspicion that the person writing has no quantitative understanding at all of climate.

      6 replies 5 retweets 86 likes
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    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15h15 hours ago
      • Report Tweet

      Good intentions + no detailed quantitative understanding is simply a recipe for bad outcomes, in my opinion.

      10 replies 9 retweets 136 likes
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    4. David Chapman‏ @Meaningness 15h15 hours ago
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      I’ve been restraining myself from writing about this... understanding climate change as a moral crisis is somewhat correct, but risks making it impossible to address the practical crisis.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15h15 hours ago
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Meaningness

      As a moral crisis it seems somewhat similar to air pollution in the 1960s to me. So many people moralistically saying we need to carpool, drive less etc. Turns out those things had little impact. But catalytic converters, emissions standards etc reduced pollution enormously.

      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15h15 hours ago
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @Meaningness

      This doesn't mean analogous solutions will help here. But I'm pretty suspicious of the motives of many moralizers.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 15h15 hours ago
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @Meaningness

      This, from Naomi Klein, is an example: it comes very close to treating the climate crisis as an opportunity to advance her favourite political causes. I'm pretty suspicious of this style of thinking, no matter what the underlying politics.pic.twitter.com/aS31TayCFw

      4 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
    8. Alexander Kruel‏ @XiXiDu 15h15 hours ago
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @Meaningness

      What's missing in discussions about climate change is the tradeoff we face between mitigating it and economic growth. Here's a little thought experiment highlighting this tradeoff.pic.twitter.com/vBelK85WzJ

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    9. David Chapman‏ @Meaningness 15h15 hours ago
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      Replying to @XiXiDu @michael_nielsen

      Left and right both, for different reasons, want to insist that the cost will be fantastically great. I am super non-expert, but back-of-envelope seems to say ~~2% of global GDP, which we can easily afford.

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 14h14 hours ago
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      Replying to @Meaningness @XiXiDu

      The Stern Review - which I have not read - estimated costs around 1% of global GDP. IIRC he later said his estimate was somewhat too low. My half-assed guess is it was actually too high - dealing with crises tends to produce hard-to-anticipate benefits. Still, 1% is substantial

      1:32 PM - 10 Nov 2019
      • 1 Retweet
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      3 replies 1 retweet 1 like
        1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 14h14 hours ago
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @Meaningness @XiXiDu

          Heh. Apparently Stern could have saved himself a huge amount of time if he'd just thought "I know, I'll just ask @Meaningness".pic.twitter.com/EdA7shj312

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. David Chapman‏ @Meaningness 14h14 hours ago
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @XiXiDu

          Currently the US is about 16% of world GDP. We spend about 6% of US GDP on administrative obstacles to healthcare providers and payers communicating with each other. Mandating a standard interface there would save 6% of US GDP, which is 1% of world GDP, which might be enough…

          1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
        3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 13h13 hours ago
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          Replying to @Meaningness @XiXiDu

          Interesting. Where's that 6% figure from? Coincidentally, the figure I've heard for total US energy spending is 1.1 trillion which is about... 6% (or so) of GDP.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. David Chapman‏ @Meaningness 14h14 hours ago
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @XiXiDu

          Thanks! Again I’m super non-expert but credible estimates I’ve seen go no higher than 4%, and even that is totally affordable compared with plausible estimates of consequences of doing nothing.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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