In The Art of Doing Science and Engineering, Hamming gives this amazing sigmoidal formulation for the growth rate of computing power: e^(22(1-e^(-t/20))), with t=0 in 1943. That predicts 2.2 GHz for 2019, with is rather remarkably close to where we are.
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We had a huge effort on this at DARPA. A key consideration is clock skew across the device as speeds increase. You end up with "clock domains" that shrink, large overhead in mitigating skew, and what effectively becomes a multicore architecture for fixed die size
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Interesting! What causes the skew / how do you resync or mitigate it?
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Is there a hard bound on clock speed other than Planck’s time?
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It's not even entirely clear that the Planck time is a hard bound, though I guess a lot of physicists would say so.
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The wavelength of 2.5 GHz is 12 cm. At some point, you gotta accept a hard physical cap on frequency.
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“The Free Lunch is Over” discussed this in 2004, and with the benefit of *15 years* of hindsight, it is amazing how absolutely correct it turned out to be. One of the most important essays I’ve read in my whole career. http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm …
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