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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. Slava Akhmechet‏ @spakhm Nov 2
      • Report Tweet

      Slava Akhmechet Retweeted Sriram Krishnan

      I’ve seen many of these, but not in one place. An incredible wealth of knowledge. Thanks for putting these together!https://twitter.com/sriramk/status/1186039031085142016 …

      Slava Akhmechet added,

      Sriram KrishnanVerified account @sriramk
      👋🚨[new] I love reading great internal company memos for the insight they give into institutions and behavior. Over the years, I've been collecting public ones and I started putting up a few on my site --> https://sriramk.com/memos  Some previews below.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Slava Akhmechet‏ @spakhm Nov 3
      • Report Tweet

      Slava Akhmechet Retweeted michael_nielsen

      @sriramk -- not technically a memo, but I frequently reread William Goldman's "Nobody Knows Anything" (h/t @michael_nielsen). Here:https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1025891742439026688 …

      Slava Akhmechet added,

      michael_nielsen @michael_nielsen
      William Goldman - one of the most successful screenwriters ever - on creating stuff: "Nobody knows anything" pic.twitter.com/qPVTIOq0kF
      Show this thread
      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
      Show this thread
    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Nov 3
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @spakhm @sriramk

      Thanks for reminding me of this! It seems almost the perfect antidote to the millions of articles based on survivorship bias. Added credibility because Goldman is so much the kind of person (ie incredibly successful) usually interviewed for "how they did it" articles.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Slava Akhmechet‏ @spakhm Nov 3
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @michael_nielsen @sriramk

      1/2 One caveat is that Goldman/Picker sound right here but are actually kinda subtly wrong. "If I said yes to everything I turned down and no to all I took, it would have worked out about the same." That's comparing to every other film that *got made* by other studios.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Slava Akhmechet‏ @spakhm Nov 3
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @spakhm @michael_nielsen @sriramk

      2/2 Had they included what didn't get made, they would have wasted lots of money. So no studio knows better than Hollywood average. But the industry as a whole knows a heck of a lot more than random chance. Still a great reminder to be cautious of survivorship bias, though.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Nov 3
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @spakhm @sriramk

      In general, Goldman writes in a style that is both loose _and_ careful. He's certainly choosing his words carefully, but I wouldn't often take what he says literally. The error you point out is very characteristic. As is the contradiction I point out in the quoted thread.

      5:22 PM - 3 Nov 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Slava Akhmechet
      0 replies 0 retweets 1 like

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