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@sriramk -- not technically a memo, but I frequently reread William Goldman's "Nobody Knows Anything" (h/t @michael_nielsen). Here:https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1025891742439026688 …
Thanks for reminding me of this! It seems almost the perfect antidote to the millions of articles based on survivorship bias. Added credibility because Goldman is so much the kind of person (ie incredibly successful) usually interviewed for "how they did it" articles.
1/2 One caveat is that Goldman/Picker sound right here but are actually kinda subtly wrong. "If I said yes to everything I turned down and no to all I took, it would have worked out about the same." That's comparing to every other film that *got made* by other studios.
2/2 Had they included what didn't get made, they would have wasted lots of money. So no studio knows better than Hollywood average. But the industry as a whole knows a heck of a lot more than random chance. Still a great reminder to be cautious of survivorship bias, though.
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[new] I love reading great internal company memos for the insight they give into institutions and behavior. Over the years, I've been collecting public ones and I started putting up a few on my site --> 