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Total US output over the next 4 years will be like $80 trillion. The country will spend like $3 billion on the presidential race: https://www.opensecrets.org/overview/cost.php … 3/80,000 seems like a pretty low amount for deciding a ton of key policy outcomes!
It'd be interesting to know how much (economic) difference the choice actually makes, over the long run. Intuitively it seems hard to believe it's not substantial, especially at times like the 2007/2008 crisis. But it'd be fun to see a bulletproof argument.
Military and foreign policy decisions seem obviously high-stakes, but tracing economic growth impacts in such a small sample is obviously hard. I've tweeted a number of papers looking at outcomes for *state* partisan control and mostly not finding much FWIW.
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