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Do I know this to be true? No. But that's why it's exploration, not betting on certainties. Unknown unknowns dominate. My guess is that betting on Mars is a 100x bet... with a significant probability of 0x outcome.
Just one example: think about the challenges for chemists & synthetic biologies & materials scientists on Mars. They're going to be asked - indeed it will be imperative - to solve a whole lot of problems they would never have been asked to solve on Earth.
This isn't exactly the broken windows fallacy, but perhaps a sibling to it? :) I.e., "let's spend immeasurable energy/money/time going somewhere that is near-infinitely more hostile to human existence than earth, but the benefit is that people will be forced to innovate."
Problems you can't get anywhere else are an immeasurably valuable asset
Most of these things will produce niche industries, useful on Mars but nowhere else. But it seems highly likely to me that some will turn into incredible drivers of Earth's economy.
Also, the pioneers will be volunteers. Going there *for reasons*. 'What use is a newborn culture?' Infinite.
Proper use of imperative, let's see how far the trombone slides though...
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