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Easy low gravity is an absolutely gigantic benefit for Mars, the Moon, and space in general. The challenges of living there will (a) cost a huge amount in the short term; and (b) produce trillion dollar industries over the long term.
Do I know this to be true? No. But that's why it's exploration, not betting on certainties. Unknown unknowns dominate. My guess is that betting on Mars is a 100x bet... with a significant probability of 0x outcome.
Just one example: think about the challenges for chemists & synthetic biologies & materials scientists on Mars. They're going to be asked - indeed it will be imperative - to solve a whole lot of problems they would never have been asked to solve on Earth.
Thing is, you can try a hundred times, so the relevant variable is human choices, not probability of success.
Bah!! I call your 100x bet, and encircle you with a 0.001x outcome. Now if only someone would call my 0.001x with a 0.078x raise.
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