Brokenness 3: The lack of growth models for the best new ideas. An example is the arXiv preprint server. It's one of humanity's great achievements of the past 30 years. Just in economic terms, over the long run it will generate trillions of dollars in social utility for humanity
-
Show this thread
-
Replying to @michael_nielsen
Remember seeing this tweet a few months ago and it just popped back into my head. Pretty interested - how sure are you it’ll be trillions?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @JacobTref
Sure? It depends on the exact meaning of the statement - one could formalize it in different ways. But in what seem the most reasonable interpretation it seems extremely likely.
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen @JacobTref
Put the preprint server in 1800 and ask what effect it would have on the development of electromagnetism. It's quite plausible it speeds up the development of entire industries by many years. So just that one instance can plausibly be associated with ~ 10^9 dollars, IMO.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen @JacobTref
And, of course, EM is far from the only example one could use. The most likely rebuttal seems like an argument that the preprint server actually slows things down. Which is sorta fun to argue for.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen @JacobTref
I think I might back off "extremely likely" and just go for "likely".
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen @JacobTref
In specifics, I can't imagine a reasonable calculation in which the role of the preprint server for this paper https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9707021 … isn't many billions of dollars. My best model would place it much higher.
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen @JacobTref
*Correction above, of course I meant 10^12 dollars. I was being lazy, and didn't want to type out trillion.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @michael_nielsen
Gosh, great specific example. Am I reading right that the publication delay there was 5-6 years? Why was that?
2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @JacobTref @michael_nielsen
Is your thinking that benefits of preprints mainly come from (1) speeding up initial distribution of one important idea/result, (2) reducing cycle time for others riffing on that initial idea, (3) qualitatively different mixing of ideas in the riffing period, (4) something else?
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
(1), (2), (3), (4)^infty. The arXiv also slows things down, makes things more homogeneous, and has other negative effects. In this particular case it started a whole lot of things happening years (decades?) earlier than they otherwise would have.
-
-
Replying to @michael_nielsen
Cop out! One must be more juicy than the others... I like your anyon example because my hunches are usually in line with (2), but it's a stark case of (1). Though now I think about it, my hunches on (2) may be general about the internet rather than int. preprints in particular.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.