In many ways this was good. The internet meant that publishing infrastructure could be centralized, giving big publishers economies of scale. Bundling passed some of those economies of scale onto customers.
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Put the preprint server in 1800 and ask what effect it would have on the development of electromagnetism. It's quite plausible it speeds up the development of entire industries by many years. So just that one instance can plausibly be associated with ~ 10^9 dollars, IMO.
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And, of course, EM is far from the only example one could use. The most likely rebuttal seems like an argument that the preprint server actually slows things down. Which is sorta fun to argue for.
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I think I might back off "extremely likely" and just go for "likely".
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In specifics, I can't imagine a reasonable calculation in which the role of the preprint server for this paper https://arxiv.org/abs/quant-ph/9707021 … isn't many billions of dollars. My best model would place it much higher.
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*Correction above, of course I meant 10^12 dollars. I was being lazy, and didn't want to type out trillion.
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