A rather macabre poll: over the next 100 years, which do you think has a higher chance of (directly or indirectly) killing more than a billion people?
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An interesting difference that I think the choice of question elides is that if you look at the probabilities of killing more than N people, nuclear weapons have a much slower drop off towards zero as N grows large. I think the answer flips somewhere in the 3-6 billion region.
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I spend a lot of time thinking about decision making under uncertainty for some reason, so this sort of question seems to be what I reach for first!
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The N variable is an interesting axis. If say it flips at maybe 1 or 10 million.
End of conversation
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