Today's pet peeve: "We will/won't achieve <AI milestone X> by <year Y>" without any reason whatsoever for the *specific number Y*. If you see this happening, you can help by just asking "How did you get that number?"
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I'm actually gonna delete my two further elaboration comments that this thread branches off, because I think they obscure the point.
Ah, I think I misinterpreted your intent initially - this makes sense!
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The original class of comment you identified - "We won't achieve milestone X by year Y" - often seems like an instance of unhelpful precision to me; it's precise, but not usually helpful. Your proposed course of action starts to generate useful understanding.
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More like, this back and forth is helping me clarify my *own* thoughts here!
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