Today's pet peeve: "We will/won't achieve <AI milestone X> by <year Y>" without any reason whatsoever for the *specific number Y*. If you see this happening, you can help by just asking "How did you get that number?"
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False precision isn't progress. Sometimes arguments are better without numbers.
I forget the exact source, but I like the observation "Better a vague answer to a good question than a precise answer to a bad question." But many people prefer to operate in world B, perhaps because it gives them a (false) sense of certainty.
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Looks like this may have been from John Tukey: https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/John_Tukey
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Sounds like a Tukeyism, and that's a great quote! Pretty sure I remember something from von Neumann along these lines, too.
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