Many young people trapped in the "intellectual black hole". A person that's very good at consuming impressive amounts of information. But doesn't produce much. The best people output often more than they input, IMHO. In a kind of uncontrollable way.
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Agreed! Some chefs slow-cook for decades before pulling a masterpiece out of the oven. Am worried that on average, a new gravity is pulling people towards useless cleverness optimization. Where you get good at impressing with ideas you read in Ray Dalio's book. Instead of doing.
Ah, right, I know what you mean. Machiavelli was actually doing something up there in his study, not simply seeming shiny to people he wanted to impress.
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BTW, Dean Keith Simonton's "equal odds" rule is a marvellous refutation of the point of view I put forth above. Basically, he studied research production, and showed there are equal odds of a paper being a major breakthrough.
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The moral of his work is: write a lot of papers, no matter how many you write each one will have roughly equal odds of being a masterpiece so you should just increase production.
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It's discussed in a bunch of his papers, and in the first chapter or so of his book "Creativity in Science". Basically, it's something like a quantitative version of your initial tweet: ramp up your production as far as you can, bc your odds on every project are about the same.
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(Yeah, I'm now arguing with myself here. I've thought a lot - maybe too much! - about both sides of this.)
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