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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. Brian Nosek‏ @BrianNosek May 7
      • Report Tweet

      Question: Can you think of a widely accepted scientific claim that is based on a single study and no replications? [Operationalize "widely accepted" as routinely in the discipline's core knowledge textbooks.] If so, what is the claim and what was the study?

      79 replies 59 retweets 171 likes
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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      Replying to @BrianNosek

      Theoretical physics is often based on zero studies (directly), yet ends up in the discipline's core textbooks. Thousands and thousands of examples. Eg the Higgs Boson and gravity waves and BEC were in textbooks for decades before confirmation.

      3 replies 1 retweet 33 likes
    3. Brian Nosek‏ @BrianNosek May 7
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      Good point. I should narrow the question to account for theory-based claims. But, in your examples, would experts agree that there are no studies offering supporting evidence, or that the critical experiments haven't been done yet, or something else?

      2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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      Replying to @BrianNosek

      Something like, say, gravity waves is tough to fit into this narrative. Of course, GR had supporting evidence. And Bell et al's pulsar results provided indirect results (in the 1970s, IIRC, though). But it's really not difficult to imagine a world where LIGO found nothing.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

      In general these situations are very interesting. Instruments sometimes cost hundreds of millions of dollars. So replication is, in the short term, very difficult.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

      I wrote a short note about some related ideas here: http://michaelnielsen.org/blog/science-beyond-individual-understanding/ …

      9:00 AM - 7 May 2019
      • 5 Likes
      • mario Alex Danvers Jonny Miller 🐬 Brian Nosek Evan Sheridan
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

          Even when replication is done using a different instrument, there's still the potential for problems. Eg data processing may be done using the same linear algebra libraries (eg BLAS). Those libraries certainly have bugs. What if the bugs cause an artifact mistaken for a signal?

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

          In any given instance this is unlikely. Over the long term I have no doubt at all this kind of thing is going to cause some very embarrassing mistakes.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

          Something about your proposed narrowing makes me uncomfortable. In disciplines with very strong theory you'd _expect_ to be more comfortable with single confirmations.

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen May 7
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen @BrianNosek

          Eventually this shades into engineering. When Lockheed designed the first stealth fighter they were in some sense doing an experiment. But they really did know what the radar profile would be, in advance, because the theory at hand was so strong.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        6. End of conversation

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