“In general, the most politically intolerant Americans, according to the analysis, tend to be whiter, more highly educated, older, more urban.”https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/us-counties-vary-their-degree-partisan-prejudice/583072/ …
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More methods details https://blog.predictwise.com/2019/03/the-atlantics-the-geography-of-partisan-prejudice-method-addendum/ … "we do suspect some of the sharp state differences can be artifacts of how party data is collected at the state level. Counter argument? We only run into these differences in 3 out of 50 states ..."
A quick look suggests there's no kind of validation at all in that model - no held-out polling data where you can compare your predictions to ground truth.
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1) Please take a careful look at methodology: https://blog.predictwise.com/2019/03/the-atlantics-the-geography-of-partisan-prejudice-method-addendum/ …. What you are interested in: the state lines DO have something to do with the data we have to rely on (party counts). FWIW: The methodology is validated (my published paper: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/1369183X.2018.1431109 …)
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That paper deals with a different model; that's not validation against ground truth.
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