Could someone please make a scatterplot of this data, with a curve fitted to it? I suspect there is a very important shape here that no one has seen before.https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1095395031006040071 …
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SO had earnings of 50 mill in 1900, about 1.5 bill today. Don't know revenue, but wouldn't be surprised if above 50 bill. Founded in 1870, I believe.
One of the strangest things about the graph is the lack of outliers above the line. It says that at any given time there's a window to get big. And that window is decreasing.
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Honestly, I can't believe there aren't exceptions to this. But to have it even as a strong tendency is remarkable.
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There is definitely stuff going on here, isn't there? I'm not sure what. But I bet this question would repay some time spent investigating.
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I think that’s because it’s impossible - an outlier above the line would correspond to a company which crosses the threshold in 2020, which is in the future
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Good point. I didn't look closely enough at the past examples. A different way of framing the graph is: most companies with 50 billion revenue got there in the last 20 (or so) years.
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Another consideration would be that many companies at the top of the list found their “killing products” very late in life. (DuPont invented Nylon & Kevlar >100y after founding, etc.). “Years from killing product development to
$XB rev” would be more significant.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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