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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
      • Report Tweet

      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Austen Allred

      I wish to emphasize that this is one of those "Difficult to appreciate from the outside, extraordinarily obvious from the inside" facts about the tech industry.https://twitter.com/Austen/status/1087590716887334913 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Austen Allred @Austen
      There are about 55,000 computer science graduates in the United States each year. There are about 25,000 code bootcamp grads. There are *single companies* whose engineering hiring requirements are growing by more than 80,000 software engineers/yr.
      Show this thread
      2 replies 27 retweets 140 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
      • Report Tweet

      A company growing at ~2X per year will, in year N+5, hire more people than worked at the company in year N in *every biweekly hiring class.* Mentally think of software companies you were aware of in 2013 and how big they were. If they haven't fallen off the curve, welp.

      2 replies 4 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
      • Report Tweet

      AppAmaGooBookSoft probably don't 2X every year but there are units in them which laugh in the general direction of that, and let's say that the rest of the software industry also has lots of projects they'd like to staff.

      2 replies 1 retweet 34 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
      • Report Tweet

      "Is this growth sustainable?" I mean, in the narrow sense of "Can anything 2X per year over 100 years", probably no. In the sense of "Should I expect reversion to the mean in software employment?", I would bet against that.

      1 reply 2 retweets 37 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
      • Report Tweet

      Considered over the arc of recorded history we're careening at breakneck speeds through a growth curve for "number of people employed who are literate" and "percentage of workforce which materially uses literacy to perform job functions", but that doesn't mean "literacy bubble."

      3 replies 11 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Kevin Kwok‏ @kevinakwok Jan 21
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @patio11

      As sidenote, have had conversations before about whether we are in a literacy bubble and what that would mean haha

      1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 21
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @kevinakwok @patio11

      What would it mean?

      11:15 PM - 21 Jan 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Kevin Kwok
      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @michael_nielsen @kevinakwok

          If you consider "the skill which is practicing religious devotions", I'd describe our society as having once distributed it extremely broadly at substantial costs, before deciding slowly and then quickly that society was overproviding it. I do not think reading is immune to this

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Jan 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @patio11 @michael_nielsen @kevinakwok

          A thing underappreciated in our social class is that reading for leisure is an extremely niche activity and that our estimation of the population's literacy is much higher than tests would measure it.

          1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
        4. 7 more replies
        1. New conversation
        2. [𝚘𝚋𝚓𝚎𝚌𝚝 𝙾𝚋𝚓𝚎𝚌𝚝]‏ @lucaswiman Jan 22
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @michael_nielsen @kevinakwok @patio11

          Why read when there are audiobooks and podcasts? Voice synthesis might get to be as good as professional readers. I already listen to about half my “reading”, and I read a lot.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. [𝚘𝚋𝚓𝚎𝚌𝚝 𝙾𝚋𝚓𝚎𝚌𝚝]‏ @lucaswiman Jan 22
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @lucaswiman @michael_nielsen and

          At the limit, there’s a tongue-in-cheek theory about Star Wars that almost everyone (including main characters) is illiterate because droids can do most things, reducing the need for intellectual work of any kind.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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